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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Moving off pure Brexit for a moment, a brief update form me for @ecipe on how UK preparations for independent trade policy are going. Summary: Signs of progress, but excessive secrecy means it hasn't really been tested ecipe.org/blog/assessing…
What comes next is a daunting (and probably unrealistic) trade policy agenda - simultaneous negotiations with EU, US, Australia, New Zealand, Japan etc while trying to flesh out our objectives and develop proper adequate consultative measures ecipe.org/blog/the-next-…
The aim of the UK Trade Policy Project is to provide realistic analysis to the challenges we'll face after Brexit. See also this recent report on the future UK-EU relationship, which might be useful in the next few weeks of Parliamentary debate ecipe.org/publications/s…
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I've been posting this Brexit options table for a few days now, but without any narrative. As we almost certainly approach indicative votes of some sort or other, what are the key messages MPs should know? 1/
Most obvious, as you move away from membership and associated 'costs' such as payments and freedom of movement, you lose certain access rights like decision making, selling services, frictionless trade, but gain access to your own trade deals. You can't have everything 2/
We also learn that any future relationship is not cut and dried. Most notably no off the shelf model can solve the Irish border problem, and the extent of access to / say in EU goods and services markets after Brexit would need to be negotiated 3/
Read 8 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
There's been lots of talk including from the PM of showing how the next phase of Brexit talks could be conducted differently if her deal passes, to help it do so. Yet no real proposals. How difficult would that have been?
We are left to conclude the PM has no intention of doing anything differently, in which case the suggestion otherwise is actually counter-productive. She thinks her way was perfect, or perhaps doesn't want to admit the deal doesn't provide the certainty she claimed it did?
So we now see the PM practically begging MPs to pass her deal, but only for the certainty of kicking the can into the next phase, having left the EU. Not helped by those saying her deal might be ok without her, which also makes little actual sense.
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
My most minority Brexit view. When the EU say the Withdrawal Agreement can't be changed this is shorthand for not changing the Irish backstop without the UK changing red lines. It is not to be taken literally of the entire text.
Of course since the UK subsequently burned all negotiating capital in trying to change the Irish backstop without changing red lines, it is probably literally the case for the moment that the WA will not change. But that is not the same as saying it couldn't happen.
My more familiar lament is that since hardly anyone has read the whole Withdrawal Agreement, still less analysed what it means, we are several months after it was unveiled not particularly the wiser. Which is typical of our lax approach thus far to negotiations.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Tom Kibasi
@TomKibasi
THREAD: The myth of the soft Brexit majority.

A majority in this parliament needs to get to 320. It's been repeated so often that it has become a truth—that there is a majority for a soft Brexit in parliament.

Here's why that's almost certainly not the case.

(1/9)
Let's start with the Labour Party (245 MPs).

Soft Brexit is the position of the leadership (see JC letter to TM 6/2).

But there are at least 60 strong backers of a people's vote in the PLP & maybe 5 who want a harder Brexit.

So Labour brings max 180 MPs to soft Brexit.

(2/9)
What would the SNP do?

Well, Scotland voted to Remain, and yesterday Sturgeon said: "preferably asking for a longer extension to put the issue back to voters".

So don't count on any SNP support for soft Brexit

(3/9)
Read 12 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Is the big #brexit climbdown beginning?

Are the Brexiteers about to decide to 'buy into' the idea that Mrs May can fix the Irish border with technology? That unicorns *do* exist?

Mad? Let me explain... 1/Thread
First @tnewtondunn reports Brexiteers like Iain Duncan Smith and co are 'biting' on a No 10 briefing that "special arrangements" could fix the Irish border - ie 'technology'



Then FT's Laura Hughes says 'Gang of Five' are too /2

@tnewtondunn Wow. Amazing....suddenly, after all these months of negotiating it seems like Number 10 has put it's hand down the back of the sofa and found a 'fix' for the border issue that has bedevilled these talks for all this time.

I love this quote particularly... /3
Read 24 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. To address a point that remainers are having fun with... the assertion that Argentina will use our #Brexit circumstances at the WTO to enhance its stake on the Falklands... is totally baloney. You know this of course, but there's a few points worth making. #Trade thread!
2. These such signals are as much for domestic consumption as anything else. This isn't the first and won't be the last. We will see a number of attempts to frustrate the UK's separation process in the hope that it will leverage concessions from the UK.
3. Some FT hack has probably already penned a poison article on how the UK will be forced to cave in because we are so weakened and feeble without the EU. As a point of fact the UK is not obliged to concede on any point at any time so long as it pays due regard to consequences.
Read 25 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Lots of noise around on #Brexit and customs today. The 'war' cabinet couldn't make decision. Here's what I know from sources in London, Dublin and Brussels. /1
The Olly Robbins presentation to cabinet heavily favoured the idea of a 'customs partnership' over a 'streamlined' or 'MaxFac' solution - still basically the two options outlined in the August customs paper here, and regurgitated at Mansion House /2

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Even though the CP has been dismissed as 'magical thinking' etc, the govt is not giving up on the idea.

Why? Because, if it worked, it's the only way to get an All-UK solution on customs, avoid a goods border in Irish Sea and preserve some independent trade policy /3
Read 15 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
1/ I'm slowly getting back into #Brexit stuff after time off in the last week or so.

I'm starting with David Davis's Telegraph piece from a couple of days ago: telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/0…

A quick thread about it.
2/ The title is interesting - it is: "How we will deliver the best Brexit in 2018". Davis's piece does not come close to answering that. The piece would more accurately be entitled "What I think the best Brexit looks like in 2018 (without asking the EU what they'd accept)"
3/ There's a bit of nerdy stuff at the start. I quote: "Donald Tusk has approved an immediate start to initial discussions on the future relationship (...) talks about the implementation period begin early in the New Year" I assume he means "Transition Period"?
Read 18 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. So with #Brexit, we now have a provisional whole UK political agreement that we will have regulatory alignment with a view to maintaining free movement of goods. The future trade agreement will have to respect those conditions.
2. That is a long winded way of say that so far as goods are concerned, we are staying in the single market. That though does not take into account services, air travel and the many other areas covered by the EEA agreement. That is still for negotiation.
3. When it comes down to that, it is likely that the UK will wish to preserve as much access to the EU aviation market as possible with the same or similar rights to the EEA. We have, as yet, no concrete position on what the UK will ask for in terms of services.
Read 25 tweets

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