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THREAD (the legitimacy of Brexit)
We don't know what will happen- I think PM will lose by 30+.
But even if she wins Brexiters ought not to cheer. The process by which she will have won threatens the new Brexit settlement. It will not be seen as legitimate and will not endure.
We don't know what will happen- I think PM will lose by 30+.
But even if she wins Brexiters ought not to cheer. The process by which she will have won threatens the new Brexit settlement. It will not be seen as legitimate and will not endure.
In the short term, this is a legal minefield. The WA will have passed and that will set off an international legal process with the EU assuming we leave on May 22nd.
But unless the PD passes as far as British law is concerned we won't be.
That is a potential nightmare.
But unless the PD passes as far as British law is concerned we won't be.
That is a potential nightmare.
British citizens might well sue. The very last thing this process needs is to be legally contestable. It has to be seen as beyond reproach and for the govt to have won fair and square.
Changing the rules of ratification towards the end of the process is highly problematic.
Changing the rules of ratification towards the end of the process is highly problematic.
Even if govt can get beyond this- the manner in which it has been rammed through Commons is also a problem.
Brexiters despise the deal. They are waiting to get an ERGer into Number 10 and will dismantle. They have been open about this. How is that basis for a stable settlement?
Brexiters despise the deal. They are waiting to get an ERGer into Number 10 and will dismantle. They have been open about this. How is that basis for a stable settlement?
Likewise remainers will forever say the PM blackmailed parliament, held a gun to its head. That her deal lost by the biggest margins in history and she insisted on playing the game until she won.
The process has created a huge pro-European demos in Britain who won't let this go.
The process has created a huge pro-European demos in Britain who won't let this go.
The democratic legitimacy of the ratification process in this parliament is spent.
If we want this to go away long term (one way or the other we all do) it seems obvious to me that for a new settlement to endure, it needs a new democratic stimulus to confer legitimacy.
If we want this to go away long term (one way or the other we all do) it seems obvious to me that for a new settlement to endure, it needs a new democratic stimulus to confer legitimacy.
That stimulus could come in a number of forms.
- a referendum on the PM's deal, ideally with a strong idea from Leave what the future relationship would look like: that would settle the question permanently.
- a referendum on the PM's deal, ideally with a strong idea from Leave what the future relationship would look like: that would settle the question permanently.
-an election with the Tory party pledging to implement PM's deal, included in their manifesto. If they won even by a small majority, they would be able to argue it had been given a mandate by electorate (Lords cannot interfere, impossible for Labour to oppose).
I can understand PM's reluctance to see Britain torn apart again over Europe in a new democratic event, especially a ref. However, my worry is, without one, with the parliamentary process so demeaned and damaged (often at govt's hand) we'll be tearing ourselves apart for decades
So, if Brexiters want Brexit to endure, more democracy, not less is probably required.
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