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Staedtler
@Staedtler
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
We were all there when the Attorney General gave his legal advice that we will have no right to leave the backstop provision, including the customs union.

And now you're all back arguing about "whether" you want a customs union.
Theresa May's Brexit would lock us permanently into the customs union.

How are we still mentally capable of having a conversation about "whether" we want a customs union after Brexit.
The only possible conclusion - and not a very flattering one - is that humans do not think for themselves but can only imitate the posture of government or media.
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More from @Staedtler see all

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
The Common market 2.0 is the one I don't like because it's just more of the same problem that got us here - a flat refusal to understand Europe.
Part of the Boles plan seems to be to join EFTA and then immediately try and rewrite the rules of EFTA to suit yourself.

This is the reason EFTA won't let you in - you'd unbalance it and start throwing your weight around trying to overturn everything.
Ha ha. Bercow has thrown out amendments A and B.

Good.
Read 3 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Aha. We have the amendments. Eight of them.

A (Baron) Unilateral exit from backstop

B (Baron) No deal exit in the absence of a withdrawal agreement

I'm already punting that Bercow refuses both of those because they're daft.
There are six sensible amendments

C: (Clarke) Customes union

D: (Boles) Common market 2.0

E: (Kyle) Confirmatory referendum

F: (Jones) Referendum before allowing no deal exit

G: (Cable) Parliamentary supremacy

H: (Eustice) EFTA / EEA
Of the six amendments, these three C, D and H don't deal with the withdrawal agreement.

G is mere political exhibitionism

So that leaves us E and F as the only plausible options, both of which ask for a confirmatory referendum, and the Kyle amendment with most credibility.
Read 5 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Good news!

"Oh God, not you again."

Good News!

The Tories are going to sack Theresa May and abandon Brexit. You'll even get a referendum for the pleasure.
A week on Friday we have to decide if we're doing European elections.

If we are, then we accept a long extension of a year.

If we are not, we leave a week on Friday with nothing. A raw Brexit.
No government is going to accept a raw Brexit with no deal. Never happen. Some would, the backbench incurables, but no government would do that, in spite of all the bravado.
Read 7 tweets

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Right. It's Friday. A quick #Brexit sitrep, as I understand it, with chats from both sides.

Tldr: the tiller of SS Britannia seems stuck fast, and the No Deal rapids lie dead ahead....is there anything that will blow the ship to the safety of the shore? /1
There are lots of murmurs round Westminster that MPs now want to back the deal - this kind of stuff noted in @Jack_Blanchard_ playbook. /2
@Jack_Blanchard_ But dig a little deeper, and ask people in Commons/Lords if acceptance of a deal requires Cox/May to win changes to the backstop - a time-limit, an exit mechanism - they say 'oh yes, of course'... /3
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The Strategy Bin
@StrategyBin
06/01/2019 - 78 years ago today, the longest-serving #UnitedStates #President, #Franklin D. #Roosevelt (#FDR) addressed the 77th #Congress with his "#Four #Freedoms" speech with the intent to shift #US #foreign #policy from that of #neutrality to #interventionist.
#FDR promoted the idea that the people of the world, in all nations, shared entitlement to four freedoms: that of the freedom of speech and expression, the freedom of worship, the freedom from want and the freedom from fear.
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Read 39 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
1/ Another customs thread. This time on #customs formalities and #Backstop . Backstop envisages a #customsunion with simplifications. It mentions that a movement certificate, A.UK, will be required. No mention of customs declarations.
2/ Movement certificate demonstrates that goods are eligible for trade under a customs union. Is certified by e.g. a Chamber of Commerce. Declarations do more than that. They are entered into the national customs system and enable customs authorities to collect customs data.
3/ Much more info on a declaration than on a movement cert. Some of the most important fields include commodity code, value of goods, country of origin and customs procedure. Would imagine the UK would still like to collect this data for various reasons even under backstop.
Read 9 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
So, the Attorney General's full legal advice seems to have a number of implications for the UK. With my "I am not a lawyer hat" at a jaunty angle, here goes...
1) The backstop will include a defacto border in the Irish sea (see marked section).
gov.uk/government/pub…
Goods from GB will require additional checks as they cross into the EU. This will lead to queues at ports and other concerns applicable to a no deal scenario. In other words, Just-In-Time may survive during transition, but highly likely backstop will kill it. *Firms will leave*
The mechanism of the customs arrangement and the movement of goods between the UK and the EU is described as "single, coherent". This is *not* the same as frictionless. In other words, there will be new red tape, but it will be the same red tape UK-wide.
Read 13 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
So we now have the DUP, Labour and Tory Brexiter MPs (I am sure ERG will join in) all demanding that the Attorney General's full legal advice on the implications of the various backstop ideas must be published. Of course they have to do this. And the prime minister will...
...have to concede. But they all know this is a silly game. Because they know what the advice will say. And even if they don't (and I naively think they are bright enough to work it out), a moments reflection would tell them that (unlike the legal advice relating...
...to the war in Iraq) the legal advice is a fig leaf, an exercise in misdirection, a canard. The choices about how to keep open the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic are political, not legal. Which I assume in his heart @michaelgove, who started...
Read 4 tweets
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Elsewhere 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 🇮🇪 #FBPE 🇪🇺 #EU
@elsewhere55
As we are back in campaigning mode with #Leave on the back foot, what is the most important thing we have learned since #EURef2016 that means we should #StopBrexit?
- That #Brexit will leave us worse off in every scenario?
- That the Referendum was advisory, not an ‘instruction’ to the Government?
Read 28 tweets

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