,
6 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
Good point by @SergiLanauIIF.
Turkey increasingly has a rollover problem, not a current account funding problem.
So far, most claims on firms have been rolled over. The rolloff has come from bank claims. I expect that to continue ...
Turkey increasingly has a rollover problem, not a current account funding problem.
So far, most claims on firms have been rolled over. The rolloff has come from bank claims. I expect that to continue ...
Everyone has their favorite Turkey chart. This is mine -- you can see that inflows to firms continued, while the "sudden stop" (or big fall in rollover rates) hit the banks 
The money coming into the banks doesn't match the money going out ...
Most of the banks "long-term" loans aren't that long-term it turns out.
(p.s. Turkey's balance of payments data is excellent, making it possible to track these things)
Most of the banks "long-term" loans aren't that long-term it turns out.
(p.s. Turkey's balance of payments data is excellent, making it possible to track these things)
In addition to the snap shot Sergei provides, it is useful to watch the time series -
the stock of ST debt has come down from its peak (hence the financial pressure) but it is still large absolutely.
And large v Turkey's reserves even before the Q1 reserve draw
the stock of ST debt has come down from its peak (hence the financial pressure) but it is still large absolutely.
And large v Turkey's reserves even before the Q1 reserve draw
What's missing in all this?
Domestic fx deposits, which have been on a strong upswing recently.
That tho puts pressure on the banks lira funding ...
Domestic fx deposits, which have been on a strong upswing recently.
That tho puts pressure on the banks lira funding ...
correction "Sergi" provides --
