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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Back in Paris. Latest #Brexit piece will be out later, after chats with all sides so please watch this space. Instinctively, however, hard to argue risk of no deal hasn't risen - & perhaps substantially. Why? A very short thread
Assume there'll be little/no progress in UK by Oct. Either because @theresa_may has managed to cling on but can't get deal through, or because (more likely) she's been replaced by a more €sceptic PM who's committed to Canada or managed no-deal. Blockage with Commons remains 1/
In this situ, there'll be more MS on the Macron side of table come Oct #EUCO (eg @MinPres) probs others. Those who've been invested in deal for personal/legacy reasons (eg @eucopresident & @JunckerEU) will have less agency - basically out of the door or in full transition mode 2/
It's not even clear Merkel's coalition will survive EP elex if SPD do v badly (we've 45% prob Govt collapses this year). EU will also have had 7 more months to prep for no deal. Will stress test all in talks today; but think too easy to assume EU will simply keep rolling ext /END
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Emerging from a day of client meets. After brief check in with all sides, our basecase remains the same. Although @theresa_may & @jeremycorbyn will carry on talking, we remain sceptical of a breakthrough /1
@theresa_may appears to want to stop short of the permanent customs union sought by Labour - perhaps a "temporary customs arrangement."
Many Tory MPs furious at May for supping with the devil; Cabinet resignations likely if PM opts for customs union and/or referendum /2
@jeremycorbyn also under growing pressure to back people’s vote in line with Labour policy, but like May doesn’t want one. Labour sources admit party leadership is “terrified” of being blamed for failure of talks. Suspect Downing St already planning “blame game” /3
Read 4 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
So where is our analysis on #Brexit? Very quick/short thread. Fork in road moment for Cabinet today. Govt needs roadmap by Friday; per @pmdfoster correct view that EU wants an idea of UK plan by 8 April to prepare #EUCO next Weds /1
So there's an informal agreement in No 10 to try & sort it out, incl in Commons, by this Friday /2
Our view: May has flirted with no deal but is convinced it's not the right thing to do. She wants another vote on her deal; probably as a run off between her deal & CU as we argued yesterday /3
Read 8 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
So what happens now in #Brexit? On Eurostar heading back to London from Bxl (again). A few thoughts based on chats over the last 2 days in light of today's defeat that everyone in Bxl was expecting. Short #Brexit thread
Most imp decision for UK now is EP elex. Without that, UK is heading to no deal between 12 Apr-22 May, with a weekend in April most likely date. No glide path. EU officials believe the time between the last #EUCO and 10 April #EUCO will "inform us of all we need to know" 1/
Or as another EU official put it: "the glide path is now." No deal of course not EU's preferred outcome; but EU officials consistently argued to me this week that leaders have now come to terms with this possibility & recognise a deal takes 2; not in their gift to deliver one 2/
Read 13 tweets

Related threads

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Ben Kelly
@TheScepticIsle
Support for ‘no deal’ Brexit is the pinnacle of Leave's descent into zealotry. The end result of refusing to plan

Like Trump, 'no deal' advocates have flooded the debate with “alternative facts”
It won't end well

THREAD! PLEASE RETWEET!

#Brexit #WTOBrexit #NoDealBrexit #SOS
The increased support for a ‘no deal’ Brexit is the ultimate failure of the Leave movement. It’s the inevitable consequence of the refusal to grasp details, come to terms with complexity & coalesce around a plan. Compromise can be frustrating. So instead they will have a tantrum.
Some Brexiteers advocated sensible solutions. The EFTA/EEA solution gained a lot of traction in the years before the ref. Even Farage had promoted it & countless others. See Farage below from 2011 essentially making the ‘Liberal Leave’ case!
Read 55 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Right. It's Friday. A quick #Brexit sitrep, as I understand it, with chats from both sides.

Tldr: the tiller of SS Britannia seems stuck fast, and the No Deal rapids lie dead ahead....is there anything that will blow the ship to the safety of the shore? /1
There are lots of murmurs round Westminster that MPs now want to back the deal - this kind of stuff noted in @Jack_Blanchard_ playbook. /2
@Jack_Blanchard_ But dig a little deeper, and ask people in Commons/Lords if acceptance of a deal requires Cox/May to win changes to the backstop - a time-limit, an exit mechanism - they say 'oh yes, of course'... /3
Read 21 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So the #brexit debate is still fogged by confused and wishful thinking.

Here's what I think I know, after chats with both sides. 1/Thread
Let's start with the negotiation in Brussels where @Geoffrey_Cox is trying to secure enough changes to the backstop to change his legal advice that the Irish backstop is a potentially permanent trap.

There was a reason he didn't make his promised speech last week... /2
@Geoffrey_Cox It's because he's struggling (and going to struggle) to get what the ERG wants: either a 'time-limit' or an 'exit mechanism' from the Irish backstop.

My understanding is that discussion is not on time limits, but on "elucidating" the exit-mechanism process/ 3
Read 20 tweets
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Jack D 🌹| #GTTO | ✋🏽
@JackDunc1
#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) #Brexit challenge - Leaver belief system
Spoke to 3 colleagues who I discovered were leave voters on a work trip.
All good people, all intelligent, all professionals
They did however illustrate some common (and fairly depressing) characteristics which show we have a challenge
2) to two of them I said "Remainers deal in facts & probabilities, Leavers deal in faith"
They enthusiastically agreed with this and seemed to think it was a compliment.

The same 2 said "I'm an optimist, everything will work out for the best"
3) 2 of them repeated the simple soundbites from the Leave campaign - for example one cited the EU army until he was shown proof that it couldn't happen without a UK referendum - but it was interesting hearing arguments long since discredited
Read 7 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets

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