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So where is our analysis on #Brexit? Very quick/short thread. Fork in road moment for Cabinet today. Govt needs roadmap by Friday; per @pmdfoster correct view that EU wants an idea of UK plan by 8 April to prepare #EUCO next Weds /1
So there's an informal agreement in No 10 to try & sort it out, incl in Commons, by this Friday /2
Our view: May has flirted with no deal but is convinced it's not the right thing to do. She wants another vote on her deal; probably as a run off between her deal & CU as we argued yesterday /3
There are also a few signs that No 10 is prepared to take the risk of living with a CU. Perhaps dress it up/call it a customs arrangement. Remember Lancaster House? May signalled openness to what sorts of customs arrangements UK could have with EU. No 10 still talks about this /4
But Cabinet is obviously split. Lobbing bricks at each other. So action in Commons tomorrow still very important. Might be another series of votes. CU is still most competitive and we think could secure a majority /5
Or Commons could legislate an extension ie pass a bill instructing Govt to stop no deal, recognising it failed on CU and now has limited room to prevent no deal. May has flip flopped & blown hot & cold on no deal. So Parly could mandate her while also giving her an out /6
Importantly, senior civil servants have advised ministers they'd have to comply with the will of Parliament if a bill goes through. Cox says the same thing. Signal it sends ahead of #EUCO & Fri 12 would be important /7
General election: we hold odds at 30% (with upward pressure). But think now it's more of a weapon being used by No 10 than a firm plan. Ministers are floating it like mad as a threat; but it's more likely we get there by accident than design /ENDS
