Thread by @MollyMcKew

I finished the Mueller report.
Some thoughts & questions here only on Russia aspects.

Report begins: "The Russian government interfered in the 2016 presidential election in sweeping & systematic fashion."

Ok. So where's the rest? The report is based largely on public info.../1

... so where is the info we need for our defense?

A theme throughout the report mirrors what we call DVG -- dumb vain greedy. The people around the now-POTUS were open targets & highly exploitable. That is well & thoroughly documented, and the Kremlin is A+ in this space. /2

IMO
The report was meant to assess Russian interference (Vol 1), but provides no holistic summary or analysis of the tools or tactics used to interfere, or weaknesses that were exploited. It is far too focused on the idea of conspiracy, & not enough on influence operations /3

It provides no holistic summary of the actors engaged in influence efforts.
It provides no assessment of the fusion between intelligence and non-intelligence efforts, or the separation between them. It barely mentions that Putin directed all lines of effort. /4

It provides very little assessment of the "sweeping & systematic" way that Americans were targeted, recruited, & influenced.

It barely describes how Americans were touched, used, or impacted -- wittingly to not.

You may argue this was not its mandate. I certainly disagree. /5

Unlike Vol 2 (obstruction), Vol 1 (influence operations) has no "roadmap" about what next, or connective narrative.
Yes, there are ongoing investigations masked, but the report itself references influence that was not investigated (or at least not explained in this report). /6

So I guess this part -- the "what it means" part -- is again left to others to explain. Great. The 2017 merry-go-round continues. /7

Otherwise:

Very interesting to see there is an ongoing investigation of the human operations the IRA employees conducted in the US. I very much want more details about what they were doing and who they met with. /8

Important: the report acknowledges it wasn't just the IRA running social media influence campaigns. I would like to see more on this. /9

I also hope that data operations, other Russians, RNC hacking, Flynn's prior contacts w/ Russians/Russia $$, info from detained oligarchs, Butina/NRA, evangelicals/orthodox outreach, inaugural money laundering, & content sharing arrangements are covered by "ongoing matters"/10

The report notes an ongoing investigation of IRA-organized events, noting after June 2016, the events were mostly political demonstrations in support of Trump. What about the events *before* June 2016? /11

I also feel we would all benefit from a lot more lustration in the section: "Targeting and recruitment of US persons”

How, who, why? Do they know? Can we get some detail on how they were targeted so we can talk about defense? /12

The report again notes, as the GRU indictment did, that bitcoin mining was used to self-finance intelligence operations. This is an important aspect of these ops; the IRA was also self-financing in some aspects. This helps make them deniable and harder to track. /13

The report notes some GRU search terms: Hillary, DNC, Trump, Cruz.
I would love some more detail on if we know why there was this earlier focus on Cruz. This seems relevant as it overlaps with potential "ongoing matters." /14

The description in the report of the wikileaks-dcleaks-guccifer comms was interesting. It raises a lot of questions about deniability and accountability, but again shows the power of the dumb-vain-greedy mantra (in this case, via Assange). /15

The sections on Flynn were excruciating to read. He used to run an intelligence agency, and yet is surrounded by a team of nutters willing to exploit US channels and resources to confirm conspiracy and mask crimes. Lovely combo. /16

The information on Papadopolous is some of the most fascinating, and really, wtf?
He was assessed to be a likely agent of Israel? This seems relevant.
There are many other questions about him: /17

-- why did Papadopolous reach out to the basically nonexistent "London Centre of International Law Practice" for a job? Did he contact anywhere else, or just happened to pick the one place riddled with foreign intelligence by chance? /18

-- It is briefly mentioned that Mifsud had prior contacts with IRA employees. This also seems relevant, and unexpounded upon, given that no one knows where he is now. /19

-- the footnotes mention a Libya-related doc exchanged by Mifsud and Papadopolous. What was that? It's relevant because Libya seems to come up in other documented Russian lines of outreach and inquiry. /20

Every bit of behavior by Papadopolous documented in the report is the wrong thing to do, makes him an easy mark. Taking random meetings; repeating info given to him by foreigners to whoever is around; vetting info & other potential contacts with foreign randos -- wrong . /21

This is not to be outdone by Carter Page, who apparently reached out to some random Russian diplomat in New York to reassure him he wasn't the one who exposed the Russian intelligence guys who were arrested, & in fact was happy to keep cooperating with Russia.
A+ DVG Carter /22

Also interesting on Page: they were unable to determine what he was actually doing during some of his trips to Moscow. This seems important. /23

Onward to Dmitri Simes -- who, speaking of Moscow, is still there, where he fled after initially talking to the investigation, and isn't coming back anytime soon. Perhaps this is worth noting, in terms of his "ongoing conversations" on policy with Kushner. /24

I'm not actually sure how CNI has survived this, other than staying low and waiting for the next DVG storm to blow through /25

Also -- why does Egypt come up so many times? This is just something I noticed. anyway. /26

It seems important that Simes, now in Moscow, also gave Kushner dirt on Clinton.

Also, what does the now-disgraced former Governor of Alabama have to do with anything? /27

There are an awful lot of redactions in Trump Tower meeting section for something that seems to be so "known."
Curious why no one ever asks about contents or provenance of ZIff doc offered by Veselnitskaya /28

On to Manafort: The description of Manafort as a kind of "political risk insurance" for Deripaska is cutting:
"Deripaska used Manafort to install friendly political officials in countries where Deripaska had business interests." /29

Said another way: A Russian oligarch used a DVG American political consultant to gain advantage for the Kremlin. /30

Perhaps we should call out this behavior, and not just the "unregistered" part of it? /31

And his mini-me, Konstantin Kilimnik, who is "assessed to have ties to Russian intelligence."
The revelation that, prior to being hired by IRI, he traveled on a Russian diplomatic passport is just sloppy.
It also means he fraudulently obtained employment with IRI...
/32

... and then sat there, as a Russian intelligence asset, through the color revolutions, "translating" or whatever. Marvelous. Feel pretty great about him being paid by US taxpayer money for that. /33

The discussion of Manafort's interactions with KK during 2016 campaign were fascinating. It wasn't just "some polling data" sent -- it was *a lot* of polling data. And it was done in a way to cover their tracks. And Manafort CONTINUED lying about it even when shown evidence. /34

This continued denial seems important. Manafort may not have known the specifics, but everyone else seemed to know who KK was, and who he worked for.

Also of interest them is the list of Americans KK was meeting with on his visits to the US. Some were in the State Dept. /35

This matters b/c every time someone in an official position met him, he would go out and say--to reporters for example--haha how can i be a spy if I meet with "high level US officials"?? KK also used this to spin the lie he was a double agent. With his Russian dip passport 🙄/36

Later on, it is mentioned that KK was aware of Russia tracking the activities of Trump campaign people interacting with and visiting Moscow. Just saying. /37

A brief aside: Why does Deripaska's family still have US visas? And why does Lyovochkin?? FFS

Deripaska also seems to have an awful lot of "former employees of the Russian Embassy in Washington" in his employ. Sure, former diplomats, if you want. /38

So to sum up on Manafort: he gave internal messaging & polling data, including targets -- aka what you need to enhance information operations -- to Russian intelligence (at best via an intermediary). Continued meeting with sketchy probably-RIS guys. He lied and kept on lying /39

Interesting how often Alfa Bank shows up as a vaguely-more-acceptable intermediary for the Kremlin at convenient moments. Aven testifying for Mueller -- that's some proffer agreement. Details?? I also wonder why he seemed to lie./40

The Erik Prince section -- lordy. What was his advice on election interference, I wonder? There's an awful lot of redaction in this section. But the report makes clear he lied -- to Mueller, and to Congress, about his meetings (plural) in the Seychelles. /41

Also, dying to know what his interests in Libya are, since we know it's not just "the interest of a former Navy man" that made him threaten the Russians not to f*** with the balance of power in Libya. /42

two themes in Vol 1 worth noting:

1) Kushner has no idea what he is doing on diplomacy or foreign affairs, + seemingly terrible judgment (DVG again). He trusts what "friends" tell him instead of pursuing above-board contacts. This exposes him to all kinds of vulnerabilities
/43

2) The media coverage of weird Russian contacts with Trumpworld was **the only reason** there wasn't more of them, and that more deals and handshakes weren't pursued.
This is why transparency and a free press that isn't cowed by threats are so important. /44

Steve Bannon loiters over the top of Vol 1 like the Cheshire Cat, smirking and throwing lit matches while himself of course having done nothing. /45

Interesting language used in the discussion of FARA, noting it couldn't be proved that Manafort, Page, and Papadopolous were acting as foreign agents for other foreign interests “beyond a reasonable doubt." This would indicate that there were serious concerns about behavior /46

Now some really bad news on our laws: the way the report analyzes campaign finance laws makes it clear that volunteerism, news, mobilization/GOTV by foreign govts probably isn't illegal because law so unclear — that’s a problem. Hello loophole for future foreign influence /47

Additionally, the report notes the provision of membership/mailing lists by foreigners to a campaign would be an FEC violation, and ditto on polling data, but probably not oppo research. This is funny on the first two, since Russians engineered it to be other way around. /48

Also, the assessment that certain behaviors by campaign officials didn’t violate FEC laws because they didn’t know what the law was seems like an exploitable loophole for everyone. You can just say "it's my first day" forever and never be held accountable. /49

One final Vol 1 note: Papadopolous is a liar, and like Manafort continues to lie, and his lies meant losing better access to Mifsud, which was obviously a big loss for the investigation. These guys are DVG to the bone, and don't care that they expose their nation to attacks /50

Just a few things on Vol 2, because I am not going to nitpick the obstruction or not legalese.

The biggest question: From day 1 of his campaign, Trump was saying what the Kremlin wanted to hear on Russia, NATO, other issues. Why? This is not answered. /51

In Vol 2 we also ask how many times we will have to break up with Comey.

And we get a pretty good picture of Stephen Miller not as the devil on the shoulder of POTUS, but as the hollow puppet putting edge on his already awful instincts. What a pair. /52

Interesting redaction: what did Trump ask Manafort to do on wikileaks? Talk to who? Maybe this is just more of what is publicly reported, but not yet charged -- but I don't know. /53

The specificity -- within 5 hours of Trump calling for the Clinton email, the probing by Russian intelligence began. Like they were waiting for permission. Or something. But very interesting detail. /54

Of note: even the WH lawyers thought Flynn had broken the law with his Russian contacts.

And Kushner. “I’ll get the president to send out a positive tweet about you later” -- DVG to the rotten core. What a thing to say to a guy facing jail /55

In general, the way the core team discusses Cohen, Flynn, Manafort -- "you're loved", "sending thoughts" -- it's like talking to a dog you are about to put to sleep. /56

Interesting to note that president's lawyers have been wrong in all interpretations of statues and constitution wherever possible.

Or, as Mueller would say: "Congress Has Power to Protect Congressional, Grand Jury, & Judicial Proceedings Against Corrupt Acts from Any Source" /57

There are a lot of things you can say about the Mueller report. But the picture painted, in bold colors, is that we're still wide open to attack, and the DVG culture in the WH is accelerating, rather than closing off, these vulnerabilities. /end