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Thread: Some tentative observations on the Sri Lanka Easter Day terror attacks.
This was one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in history. Given the number of attackers and locations (including on opposite sides of the country) targeted in a short space of time it would likely have required significant coordination and planning.
So far there has been no credible claim of responsibility for the attacks.
Even for those paying close attention to terror trends around the world, attacks on this scale in Sri Lanka came of the blue. There has been relatively little jihadi activity in Sri Lanka. I have sense the vast majority of analysts in the terrorism studies field were surprised.
And that in and of itself is very sobering nearly eighteen years after 9/11.
Sri Lankan authorities are in the very early stages of investigating and at this early stage suspect a local group may have acted in concert with an international network.
Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent has been linked to attacks in South Asia. But a month ago al Qaeda's general command told followers to avoid targeting places of worship. So an AQ link to the Sri Lanka attacks seems unlikely.
So in probing international connections, investigators will be looking at whether there was an ISIS link. Here are the initial intelligence indications that have come into the U.S. government:
ISIS and their followers have a track record of attacking churches. cnn.com/2017/04/09/mid…
Some analysis from me in 2016 on this: cnn.com/2016/07/26/eur…
If there was an ISIS connection to the Sri Lanka attacks (and it's only an if at this stage) then one question will be whether there was any link to the several dozen Sri Lankans who joined ISIS:
ISIS has had a track record of partnering up with local groups to launch terrorist attacks on Westerners in South Asia - Exhibit A: reuters.com/article/us-ban…
We will know more about genesis of the Sri Lanka terror attacks, the deadliest in the recent history of the region, in days to come. With terrorism continuing to destroy so many lives the international community cannot lose focus in tackling the threat.
