Thread by @uk_domain_names

A fascinating scenario starts to emerge when you play with these opinion poll numbers vs the 2014 results: both the LibDems and Change UK TIG start picking up a few MEPs. Why? Because they're above the threshold in many regions to get *1* MEP, and will never get 2 no matter what.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163

SE ENGLAND 2014
UKIP: 4 MEP
Conservative: 3 MEP
Labour: 1 MEP
Green: 1 MEP
Liberal Democrats: 1 MEP

SE ENGLAND 2019 BASED ON COMRES 16 APRIL
UKIP: 0 MEP (-4)
Conservative: 3 MEP
Labour: 2 MEP (+1)
Green: 1 MEP
Liberal Democrats: 1 MEP
Brexit: 2 MEP (+2)
Change UK TIG: 1 MEP (+1)

SW ENGLAND 2014
UKIP: 2 MEP
Conservative: 2 MEP
Labour: 1 MEP
Green: 1 MEP
Liberal Democrats: 0 MEP

SW ENGLAND 2019 BASED ON COMRES 16 APRIL
UKIP: 0 MEP (-2)
Conservative: 2 MEP
Labour: 1 MEP
Green: 0 MEP (-1)
LD: 1 MEP (+1)
Brexit Party: 1 MEP (+1)
Change UK TIG: 1 MEP (+1)

EAST OF ENGLAND 2014
UKIP: 3 MEP
Conservative: 3 MEP
Labour: 1 MEP
Green: 0
Liberal Democrats: 0

EAST OF ENGLAND 2019 BASED ON COMRES 16 APRIL
UKIP: 0 MEP (-3)
Conservative: 2 MEP (-1)
Labour: 2 MEP (+1)
Green: 0
LD 1 MEP (+1)
Brexit Party: 1 MEP (+1)
Change UK TIG: 1 MEP (+1)

(Note: this effect only happens where there are a lot of seats to contest.)

WHY?
- UKIP hurts the Brexit Party just enough
- LD vote share has gone up just enough
- Change UK level-pegging LD
Those 3 factors together make the difference.

Now, of course that's only one opinion poll, so I'm not ascribing a huge amount of importance to it. But it's interesting to see what seems to be the "Leave" vote being split worse than the Remain vote, because BP/UKIP/Tories are all fighting for the hard leavers.

(Also assumes exactly the same turnout as last time, which is grossly simplistic. But there's no way to get a better figure.)