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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
A fascinating scenario starts to emerge when you play with these opinion poll numbers vs the 2014 results: both the LibDems and Change UK TIG start picking up a few MEPs. Why? Because they're above the threshold in many regions to get *1* MEP, and will never get 2 no matter what.
SE ENGLAND 2014
UKIP: 4 MEP
Conservative: 3 MEP
Labour: 1 MEP
Green: 1 MEP
Liberal Democrats: 1 MEP

SE ENGLAND 2019 BASED ON COMRES 16 APRIL
UKIP: 0 MEP (-4)
Conservative: 3 MEP
Labour: 2 MEP (+1)
Green: 1 MEP
Liberal Democrats: 1 MEP
Brexit: 2 MEP (+2)
Change UK TIG: 1 MEP (+1)
SW ENGLAND 2014
UKIP: 2 MEP
Conservative: 2 MEP
Labour: 1 MEP
Green: 1 MEP
Liberal Democrats: 0 MEP

SW ENGLAND 2019 BASED ON COMRES 16 APRIL
UKIP: 0 MEP (-2)
Conservative: 2 MEP
Labour: 1 MEP
Green: 0 MEP (-1)
LD: 1 MEP (+1)
Brexit Party: 1 MEP (+1)
Change UK TIG: 1 MEP (+1)
EAST OF ENGLAND 2014
UKIP: 3 MEP
Conservative: 3 MEP
Labour: 1 MEP
Green: 0
Liberal Democrats: 0

EAST OF ENGLAND 2019 BASED ON COMRES 16 APRIL
UKIP: 0 MEP (-3)
Conservative: 2 MEP (-1)
Labour: 2 MEP (+1)
Green: 0
LD 1 MEP (+1)
Brexit Party: 1 MEP (+1)
Change UK TIG: 1 MEP (+1)
(Note: this effect only happens where there are a lot of seats to contest.)

WHY?
- UKIP hurts the Brexit Party just enough
- LD vote share has gone up just enough
- Change UK level-pegging LD
Those 3 factors together make the difference.
Now, of course that's only one opinion poll, so I'm not ascribing a huge amount of importance to it. But it's interesting to see what seems to be the "Leave" vote being split worse than the Remain vote, because BP/UKIP/Tories are all fighting for the hard leavers.
(Also assumes exactly the same turnout as last time, which is grossly simplistic. But there's no way to get a better figure.)
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More from @uk_domain_names see all

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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Rebecca Long-Bailey refuses to say that a second referendum is a Labour red line in their negotiations with the Tories. Witters on and on about all the jobs-first Brexit unicorn fluffy stuff. #Ridge
Stop messing around, and vote for an unashamedly pro-Remain party instead...
Several thousand words later, RLB still hasn't committed to anything. Preview of Tuesday's manifesto?
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Au courant = running water
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Au pair = gold earrings
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bel esprit = energetic campanology
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
I have put together a guide to voting strategically "pro-Remain" in the upcoming 2019 European elections, based on the 2014 results. It's a pretty blunt analogue, because the picture was so different then, but absent detailed polls it's all we have...
drive.google.com/file/d/1ucUzUJ…
The guide (which you can download as a PDF from the link in the previous tweet) is broken down by region (see examples) with a voting recommendation tailored to how the votes fell last time around in each region. If you find it useful, please share it around. Thanks.
IMPORTANT: This is aimed squarely, by design, at people whose first concern is Brexit. It is not meant to be an all-purpose "how to vote" guide.
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Lee Griffin
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Here's why I think that rather than piling the votes in to Labour or Tories, you should be piling your votes into a *range* of Pro-EU candidates at the next election. I'm going to use my region, the South West and Gibraltar as an example...
The breakdown in 2014 was roughly:

UKIP: 484k (33%)
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Labour: 206k (14%)
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There were of course others, but all small numbers and mostly independent so not particularly pertinent as it stands
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I was just looking at the Opinion Poll of @PTTVOnlineNews with a jar of salt. You sort of get the drift that DMK and Stalin are the predominant political force and leader in the State. I dont attach any other importance to the poll otherwise

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#poll If there was a Snap General Election, who would you vote for?

(For other parties, please vote them in comments)

Please RT once Voted! 😃
1997: Blair 13.5mn votes
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2019:

add first time voters (75% of those who vote, vote for Labour)

Subtract 2% of the population, 80% of whom vote Tories!

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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
Digging around the @ONS MQ5 dataset, thought I’d share 4 UK pension charts. First up, employer contributions to funded pension schemes still overwhelm employee contributions 1/4
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