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If you're waking up, the headlines:
-It's the Lib Dems' night. They're making big gains, especially against Tories in the south. In Leave areas too
-It *is* a bad night for the Tories, don't let them tell you otherwise
-It's a bad night for Labour. No gains. 9th year Tory govt.
-It's the Lib Dems' night. They're making big gains, especially against Tories in the south. In Leave areas too
-It *is* a bad night for the Tories, don't let them tell you otherwise
-It's a bad night for Labour. No gains. 9th year Tory govt.
-Labour have had a particularly night in places it has been losing ground in recently, less formally educated, v high Brexity places, towns like Walsall. Also suffering to lots of independent groups in places like Ashfield and Bolsover.
-In fairness some evidence that in some target seats the party is doing a bit better. Trafford, Plymouth, Telford, Peterborough (ish), South Swindon (even though no progress on council).
But still, after nine years in opposition it is a poor performance overall.
But still, after nine years in opposition it is a poor performance overall.
-They've lost ground to Lib Dems and Greens as well as Tories in some places. Problem for Labour in resolving its Brexit dilemma will be both its remain MPs and Leave MPs can point to results in their patches and damn the party's Brexit strategy. And they'll both be right.
Either way, these local elections are the first time that Labour's Brexit policy has clearly cost the party. Up to now, its ambiguity either actively benefited Labour (2017) or made little difference (2018). That's a significant moment.
As for the Tories, they will/are spinning this is better than expected. It isn't. It's a bad night and it's going to get worse today.
Yes they've had some successes in the midlands and the north. The Tories are continuing to realign less formally educated, Brexit voters in the north and midlands. Gains in NE Lincs, Walsall and Stoke should deeply concern Labour.
But the Tories shouldn't kid themselves. There are plenty of seats where they're losing ground to Labour too. Telford, Plymouth, Medway, Dartford and others.
Indeed Labour put in a decentish showing in the south of England. It was its losses in the midlands and the north which have nullified its inroads.
More worrying for the Tories is the very *very* strong revival of the Lib Dems as an oppositional force, especially in the south of England. Where did the only Tory majority since 1992 come from? Tory consumption of Lib Dem seats.
Some of the Lib Dem gains have been truly staggering. See this mini thread I made earlier.
Lib Dems been doing well in Remain areas like Vale of White Horse and Leave areas like Bosworth. People are getting v agitated to say this Lib Dem surge is either a protest vote or a remainer backlash. I can’t repeat this enough: It doesn’t have to be either/or. It can be both.
Musn’t leave out @TheGreenParty - they’ve done v well. If I were Corbyn I’d be just as worried about that as the Lib Dems. Part of JC’s success in 2017 was squeezing the “broad left” group of voters for Labour. If that’s splintering a key part of his coalition is disappearing.
Oh and UKIP have once again fallen into nugatory numbers. They have almost no elected representation left in local govt. if they lose most/all of their EU seats as expected, outside of the Welsh Assembly they will be a very minor party indeed.
That’s it for now, I need to pack. But loads more results to come throughout the day. Keep your eyes on @SkyNews for rolling coverage with @adamboultonSKY @BethRigby and the team.
The best team in Westminster, obvs.
