, 11 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
There is a big and obvious thing that happened in #LocalElections2019 - a surge of support for #remain parties - and it is real.But there is a smaller thing creating a more confusing picture. A theory .... 1/n (picture source @guardian ) #Brexit
The smaller thing is that Labour is doing better in areas that are remain and worse in its strong areas that are #leave. This is a paradox as you would expect the opposite if this was driven by a #RemainBacklash.
And the Tories are the opposite. They are being punished in their areas that are remain. Is this just a plague on both your houses and reveal nothing about voters and #brexit? I don't believe so. And here's my theory.
There are actually three things going on simultaneously interacting in strange ways: 1. The 2017 realignment of the Labour vote around a broad social base is still playing through. So the geography of Labour's vote is still shifting towards more remain areas.
2. There is a Tory leave strike. They are waiting for Farage and the #Brexit party to arrive on May 23rd. That is allowing Lib Dems to build support by aggregating remain support in Tory strongholds hence gains for Lib Dems in South West etc.
3. Remain support is shifting from Labour. But in #remain seats it is balancing out with the 2017 effect still playing out - dampening it but not reversing it.
In Labour leave areas, *all three effects are taking place* to is detriment. The 2017 effect is negative for Labour in these areas, they are shedding leave support to independents *and* remain support to Lib Dems/Greens. The swings make this clear. From @Peston
And I don't buy the thesis that voters don't know what the Lib Dems and Greens stand for. Those most likely to vote clearly do.
If I'm right then this election had *everything* to do with #brexit. And Labour is about to make an error of historic proportions by following through with it. And the #EuropeanElections2019 will be a hurricane about to hit both Labour and Tory #RemainBacklash #leavestrike
Oh, and finally, areas don't vote, people do. You can't judge what is happening from the area alone. That's my theory done. #LocalElections2019 #brexit
*A clarification here: my intention wasn'nt to imply Tory leave voters are voting lib Dems (though some may be on local issues). The point is the leave strike is depressing their support, I imagine mainly through stay at homes. They will likely turn to Farage on May 23.
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