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Would a deal travel through the Parliament? Although Tory whips are optimistic, securing a Commons majority on a CU is a very high hurdle. Recall only 36 Tory MPs backed the idea in last month’s indicative votes. There is already a backlash among Brexiteers against her plan 1/
This could provoke Cabinet resignations. @jeremycorbyn might also not be able to deliver Labour’s 246 MPs, as May has set her face against a referendum on her deal. Without that, Labour MPs who back Remain and want a public vote might not support a May-Corbyn compromise 2/
Backers of a referendum claim up to 150 Labour MPs want one. Potentially, that would leave @theresa_may needing the backing of more than 200 of the 313 Tory MPs, which will prove an extremely tall order 3/
Indeed, Eurosceptics claim the number of MPs who will vote against May’s deal has risen by at least 10 since it was defeated by 58 votes in March. A CU would swell that rebellion; Brexiteer ministers believe only around 100 MPs might vote for one 4/
Of course, Irish backstop would remain part of the WA, alienating the DUP and many Tories, who believe (wrongly) that a new leader could change it by “standing up to Brussels.” So even if a May-Corbyn deal comes together, numbers & dynamic in Commons remains treacherous ENDS
