Thread by @CasMudde

% "people are worse off than 20 yrs ago" vs. % vote "illiberal parties" #Thread

🇬🇷 87 v 57
🇮🇹 72 v 54
🇪🇸 62 v 30
🇫🇷 56 v 29
🇬🇧 53 v 3
🇩🇪 46 v 22
🇭🇺 44 v 69
🇳🇱 31 v 28
🇸🇪 19 v 26
🇵🇱 17 v 51

pewrsr.ch/2ulefVO

1. Making this tweet once again brought home how difficult it is to use traditional political (science) terminology, like "mainstream" or "anti-system".

2. I use "illiberal" as shorthand for "anti-liberal democracy", i.e. against system of majority rule and minority rights. It includes extremists (anti-democrats) of left and right and, mainly, populists of left and right.

3. I opted for "illiberal parties" rather than "anti-system", because in several of these countries the system is now "illiberal" (notably Hungary and Poland).

4. Consequently, in countries like Hungary and Poland, most pro-system parties are illiberal and most anti-system parties are liberal democratic.

5. The classification of "illiberal" has been applied pretty generously, particularly in Western European countries, including some fairly moderately populist left parties like Die Linke and SP.

6. Scores of "people who think average people are worse off than 20 years ago" in Hungary and, particularly, Poland is remarkably low. Explains, in part, why illiberal government parties are doing so well in polls (media manipulation helps too).

7. All vote scores based on last parliamentary election (lower house).

Obviously, UK would be much different if elections now.

8. While numbers show some relationship between the two, and therefore hint as "economic anxiety" explanations, two caveats: 1) weak relationship; 2) economic anxiety is racialized for many people.

9. In short, these numbers don't say that much. 😉 #TheEnd