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The situation for the Islamic State today resembles 2008, only on a broader geographic scale—which is why it's trying to replicate its old blueprint but across the region. This explains why its affiliates are getting CLOSER to it & why it's quielty growing foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/03/wel…
Related to this idea, this trend of jihadists across the board going local also increasingly involves ISIS. The difference is ISIS is local in more countries, tightly connected to the Caliphate Central. Focus on the West is a thing of the past. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
(As with everything, they will be exceptions. But that's definitely the general trend now.)
Another note worth making is that ISIS was one of the earliest jihadist groups to focus locally, before the uprisings of 2011 led more groups to do the same. So it going back to growing local roots is moving back to its comfort zone -- 2014-2016 period was an anomaly to ISIS...
So when Baghdadi appeared in the video, he didn't take risk just to show he was alive. That's intuitive but it doesn't account for all the new changes barely mentioned in media. His group survived the critical period of transition, again without loss of its affiliates or fracture
Also the core of the organization remains intact despite 1) the killing of high-profile leaders 2) the much-hyped internal friction 3) the collapse of the caliphate in Iraq & Syria. Intel about Baghdadi turned out to be questionable at best, and the group's numbers bogus.
