Thread by @hxhassan

Strange teaser for a “video” release by the Islamic State’s al-Furqan media. Coming soon.

#breaking ISIS produces a video showing Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi alive and talking about the caliphate after Baghouz. He starts with noting that the Baghouz battle ended.

As suspected, reporting about Baghdadi that he was slim & ailing (recurrent in captured commanders’ testimonies, who claimed to have met him) were inaccurate

The key message Baghdadi emphasises is that his jihadists did not hand over any area and died fighting to the end, citing Bayji, Sirte, Mosul, Raqqa and Baghouz.

Baghdadi: the war against our enemies today is a “war of attrition”

Baghdadi accepts oath of allegiance from jihadists in Mali, Borkina Faso, and Afghanistan.

Importantly, he mentions Sri Lanka, and the new pledge of allegiance there. He says it was retaliation for Baghouz.

He also mentions the fall of the presidents of Algeria and Sudan.

Very, very important things to glean from this appearance and recent developments. Hope to elaborate later in the day

I bet that the future ISIS leader is one of the three “appearing” with Baghdadi in this video.

There is a common point made by analysts about the idea of retaliation by groups like Isis, esp re Sri Lanka attack. Retaliation doesn’t necessarily mean the attack was designed & planned with specific retaliation in mind; this seems like an academic concept. Should be basic 1/2

These attacks are part of a continuum, as part of the war these groups have conducted for years. The retaliation bit is equivalent to “dedication”. The concept is well embedded in Islamist/tribal norms. Baghdadi is more likely to say it’s revenge for Baghouz than to Christchurch!

This one wearing Arabian clothes (apparently from the delegated committee in charge of the external Wilayat)