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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
, 8 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
By Friday: 🇺🇸🇨🇳
Trade-war has already changed the world, no matter what happens b/c motivation is to redefine China (Lighthizer's)

"Failure of talks would prove no one can do it b/c China is fundamentally @ odds w/ the US That shift would set up a new dynamic w/ China."

theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
I'm going to post all the good articles on this subject (whether I agree w/ it or not) Please feel free to do the same as part of a group learning/sharing.
An another that is totally off the mark essay but I want to post anyway b/c it is the narrative that people that think the trade-war is about "winning" & why China will win. The trade-war isn't about winning & beyond trade & is a pretext to redefine China

foreignpolicy.com/2018/04/13/why…
US-China trade-war: How did we get here?

An exceptional paper on the US beef w/ China👇🏻👇🏻. Has links to all the original thoughts of Mark Wu, Robert Lighthizer & Jennifer Hillman (who disagrees w/ Lighthizer) & how those thoughts brought us here today.

cfr.org/blog/us-china-…
#1) Mark Wu's paper on why China’s party-state fits poorly within the WTO’s legal restraints. One reason why China now likes the WTO is that it hasn’t significantly constrained China’s industrial policy ambition.

Original paper on how we got here👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

ustr.gov/sites/default/…
#2) Lighthizer's testimony on US-China & the WTO 👇🏻👇🏻 Key pts:

a) China econ & political system fundamentally diff than the US
b) US misjudged incentives to relocate to China to serve US
c) US passive to Chinese mercantilism
d) Need more aggressive approach than before😮
#3) Jennifer Hillman June 2018; basically disagrees w/ Lighthizer on the "how" as she thinks the WTO should be given a chance, that said, she sounds super disappointed in China & the whole WTO thing & she is an advocate 👇🏻👇🏻
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More from @Trinhnomics see all

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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
Good morning - hot & humid day in 🇭🇰. Korea unemployment went UP to 4.1% from 3.8% (Moonomics not working🙄). We wait for China April data, Indonesia trade; and Philippines remittances.

China April data likely to slow after strong March 👇🏻 (look forward to decompose FAI 🤗)
The 4.1% is SEASONALLY ADJUSTED so actually 4.4% 🥶. Can't say I didn't warn Moon (already wrote about this in 2017 & how it's really bad economics of Moon to raise costs of production in Korea - yes, firms can offshore & they do).

US 👗👜👞retail sales tonight (likely slowed).
Let me give u some color on Korean employment or shall I say lack of employment (up📈to 4.4%). Who's down?

a) Manufacturing -1.2% YoY (been declining for a while)
b) Construction -1.5% (real estate downturn)
c) Retail sales -0.6% (yes, higher wage costs = SMEs ✂️cut headcount)🥶
Read 12 tweets
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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
Light Asian econ data wk & given that Xi & Trump won't meet for another month, let's take a breather from trade-war. Goal of @Trinhnomics is to share ideas.

Thread👇🏻on how to 📈presence on Twitter land. Been compounding at 15.6% per month, meaning grew from 1k May'18 👉🏻11.5k😎
1) Be focused on wut u want to be known for. Joined Twitter just to consume info just like most people & decided in 2016 to produce

After trials & errors, advice is PICK A TOPIC & DON'T DEVIATE. Mine is econ & finance & since it's my job & I love it, plenty of content to share🤗
2) After picking topic/area/people u want to network/be known for, the 2nd is ur objective on Twitter. Do you want to just have a lot of Twitter followers or do u actually want to influence? If former, u can pay for it via PR firms so no need to try so hard. Latter, need to work.
Read 12 tweets
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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
Good morning Asia - won't be a pretty day given the retaliation of China (smaller than the US but still signifying of icy relation); Look at CNH 👇🏻 - flew yesterday & sign that China is trying to use this route to offset erosion of price competitiveness. Still, what's the limit?
a) External debt USD1.97trn w/ 1.22trn or 62% short-term 👇🏻(general gov debt very small & it's mostly financial & corps).

So if it weakens the CNY too much, the issue is assets & liabilities mismatch for sectors most exposed (deposit taking corp ex CB is USD899bn or 46% of total
b) Given weak domestic demand, core CPI is stable. But we got a🐽🐖problem in Asia & pork is key b/c key protein for China & the gov' says price will exceed 70% in H2 2019.

Look at wut happened last time 🐷prices went up, yes headline goes 📈. A weaker CNY'll import more CPI too
Read 8 tweets

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David Gaffen
@davidgaffen
FRIDAY MORNING IN ENERGY: And I’d like to talk energy, but really, I’ve got to talk trade first after we’ve got new tariffs coming, a lot of research notes, and very nervous markets… #OOTT #tradewar #China #trade
… as always you can follow our coverage here on Reuters.com. Our lead story right now is, the US escalated the trade war with more tariffs after the Chinese made major changes in the agreement that blew everything up earlier in the week.

reuters.com/article/us-usa…
Trump has said he’s in no rush to complete the deal. So we’ve got that going for us. #trade #china Ttradewar

reuters.com/article/us-usa…
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
Exclusive: #China backtracked on nearly all aspects of #US trade deal - All of us that follow & know China knew that this was never going to fly. You can't negotiate with a rogue, predator state like China. mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id…
The diplomatic cable from Beijing arrived in Washington late on Friday night, with systematic edits to a nearly 150-page draft trade agreement that would blow up months of negotiations. The document was riddled with reversals by China that undermined core US demands, sources said
In each of the 7 chapters of the draft trade deal, China deleted its commitments to change laws to resolve core complaints that caused the US to launch a trade war: theft of US IP & trade secrets; forced tech transfers; competition policy; access to financial services, etc, etc.
Read 10 tweets
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
#US footwear maker Brooks Running to move #China production to #Vietnam this year to avoid trade war tariffs. About 8,000 jobs will also move from China to Vietnam 👍 - Last foreign company to leave China, please turn off the lights e.vnexpress.net/news/business/…
The U.S company's CEO Jim Weber said Friday that his company took the decision in January when U.S. President Donald Trump was threatening to boost shoes tariffs from 20 percent to 45 percent.
"We’re going to pull most of our production out of China," he said. "We’ve had to make a long-term decision on this picture. It’s disruptive, but the reality. So we’ll be predominantly in Vietnam by the end of the year," he told Reuters.
Read 7 tweets
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Julie Laumann
@Otpor17
In 2012, Tim Cook announced Apple would make a Mac computer in the US.

But when Apple began making the $3000 computer in Texas, it struggled to find enough screws. By the time the computer was ready for mass production, Apple had ordered screws from China nyti.ms/2HBT2QK
Apple CEO Tim Cook: “The skill here is just incredible. In the US, you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and I’m not sure we could fill the room. In China, you could fill multiple football fields.” (h/t @scottlincicome)
"Caterpillar said costs tied to new US tariffs on foreign goods, including steel and aluminum, were just above $100 million over the 5 months of 2018 that they were in effect.

The company expects more than $200 million in tariff-related costs this year." wsj.com/articles/cater…
Read 140 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets
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Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets

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