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1/. This thread compiles information about EU Election polls, indicating clear trends & also volatility esp in Brexit Party & Labour, plus the best D’Hondt explanation I have seen to date. 
2/. This shows the range of volatility .
And a reminder from Mike Smithson that the Brexit Party (at its highest ) is still polling 4% behind UKIP’s max polling before the 2014 EU elections (38%) when it garnered 27% of the votes.
And a reminder from Mike Smithson that the Brexit Party (at its highest ) is still polling 4% behind UKIP’s max polling before the 2014 EU elections (38%) when it garnered 27% of the votes.
3/. Lib Dems is the front runner Remain Party just 1% behind Labour in one poll, with Greens the next Remain Party, polling c.4% behind the Lib Dems
In fact in London LIB DEMS is fast on the heels of Labour running just 2% behind LP: 27% to Labour’s 29%
In fact in London LIB DEMS is fast on the heels of Labour running just 2% behind LP: 27% to Labour’s 29%
4/ Given that information we need to be paying v. close attention to regional polling, even in regions with just 3-5 votes.
I strongly question the current LP trope that voting Pro Brexit LP is the best way of keeping the Brexit Party out even in some of the smaller regions.
I strongly question the current LP trope that voting Pro Brexit LP is the best way of keeping the Brexit Party out even in some of the smaller regions.
5/. This D’Hondt explainer (with links to calculator tools) is one of the clearest I have seen and demonstrates WHY that Labour Party trope should be looked at with a very sceptical eye especially if the current trends continue.
patreon.com/posts/dhondt-v…
patreon.com/posts/dhondt-v…
6/. Thanks to @markpack for this excellent compilation of information on current EU Parl polls PLUS a table of Westminster Elections polling spanning April before LE 19 April and post LE19 in May.
markpack.org.uk/155623/voting-…
markpack.org.uk/155623/voting-…
