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Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
@dravirmani
May 14, 2019 • 54 tweets • 45 min read • Read on X
#SupplyChains #India needs to work indipendently with #USA and #China to separate the supply chains headed in the two directions and try to shift as much of them as possible to India
2/n
3/n #SupplyChains This is the final opportunity for making India a manufacturing hub, & bring manufacture jobs to India. It would be tragic if we miss this opportunity. I suggest that the new Govt appoint a #MOS(Supply Chains)in @PMOIndia to attract Global supply chains to India.
4/n #SupplyChains (1) Improve EODB on Cross Border Trade to top 50 rank (2) GST refund within 3 days for 90% of exports. (3) Replace Specific Tariffs by Ad valorem in Textiles. (4)De-control Agriculture, replace QRs by tariffs & export duty bands. ..5/n
5/n #SupplyChains (5)Reduce Capital(Tax rts, Fiscal-Monetary Twist), (6) Labor laws(4), flexibility, transportability, competition, (7) Land Use laws; Rural land, Chemical Ind CPU (8) Sector problem ID & soln (9) Road shows-USA, China, (10) MOS(#SuCh) (11)Suspend IT0 for 5-10yrs
6/n #SupplyChains Cotton Textiles
7/n #SupplyChains: Great opportunity for India's Auto parts Industry, and selective opportunity in General Household goods and Sporting goods
8/n #SupplyChains #Electronics
9/n #SupplyChains #Agriculture
10/n #SupplyChains #Japan
11/n #Supplychains #Vietnam the no1 gainer from #TariffWar :
12/n #SupplyChains Opportunity in Electronics (mobile phones, laptops, video games, LCD, CRTs, TVs, VCR, hard discs, ), Toys: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
13/n #SupplyChains #Japan
14/n #SupplyChains #China to #India scmp.com/comment/insigh…
15/n #SupplyChains Could #India become a new hub for the Global Semi-conductor industry(#USA, #SKorea, #Taiwan) ? @PMOIndia
16/n #SupplyChains shifting from #China to #ASEAN since #GFC2008
17/n #SupplyChains #USA #China
18/n #SupplyChains >8% of #US firms plan to move from #China to #India:
19/n #SupplyChains #USA #Innovative & #Bold action by @PMOIndia can move 15% to 30% of these to #India. Will we grab this once in generation opportunity for #MakeInIndia? on.ft.com/2HPCe5A
20/n (18b) #SupplyChain #USA
20/n #SupplyChains #China
21/n #SupplyChains #Taiwan #FDI (thread)
22/n #SupplyChains #Taiwan
23/n #SupplyChains #China/#India == #USA
24/n #SupplyChains #Chinese Trans-shipment through #Vietnam, #Mexico & other cntrys is also to be expected in short term: asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Data…
25/n #SupplyChains #India
26/n #SupplyChains Potential
27/n #SupplyChains #SKorea ft.com/content/b2014a…
28/n #SupplyChains Avg Export oriented #garment factory in #Bangladesh employs 10x to 50x the workers that the avg Indian #RMG #Indian producer does. Why? => Labor Flexibility, lower SocSec tax on producer: scmp.com/week-asia/econ…
29/n #SupplyChains #Taiwain is a key link in tech supply chains=> Replace Red Tape with Red carpet
30/n #SupplyChains #China #USA
31/n #SupplyChains #India #Budget
32/n #SupplyChains #US #Taiwan
33/n #SupplyChains #IT #Electronics
34/n Some policy suggestions were made early in 👆🏽thread
35/n #SupplyChains #India has few of the limitations of #Vietnam (size of otential labor force-unskilled, Demi-skilled & skilled) and lacks a few of the advantages(eg inability to dispose of redundant workers) (cc @PiyushGoyal)
31/n Does the #SEZ act amendment 👇🏽represent the first step in incentivizing manufacturing #SupplyChains to move to India?
36/n Deterioration in Global manufacturing ( ) make it more urgent for #India to undertake reforms (4/n, 5/n) for attracting #FDI in #SupplyChains
37/n #SupplyChains Indian Govt must go out & grab these opportunities ( ) by setting up a specialized focused group to contact all such companies & work with them to clear road blocks to shifting production to India!
38/n #SupplyChains #India 🙏🏼 Grab this opportunity please @PiyushGoyal please 🙏🏼
39/n Will #India miss this once in a generation #SupplyChain #MakeInIndia opportunity?
40/n #SupplyChains #CommunistParty ruled #Vietnam is constructing 38 industrial estates, which will fill up with #FDI & thier suppliers in ~2 yrs, while #India remains mired in #BS (=#Bureaucratic #Socialism) 😢: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
41/n #SupplyChain #USA
42/n #SupplyChains #China
43/n 100 companies waiting for #Indian Industry, exporters & Govt to contact them (#MakeInIndia anyone? 🧐) and lay out the red carpet from China to India?
44/n #SupplyChains on move from #China to #Vietnam . Can we learn anything from it? asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-…
45/n #SupplyChains #India 😃🤓 👏
46/n Summary detail from above article
47/n #SupplyChains #CEZ = #Coastal #Employment #Zones are a great idea. 3+2 such zones near #Ports are feasible, 3 almost done, 2 in process. But one could also convert 5 largest SEZ’s (out of 500) in the interior of cntry, near #Airports into #Special #Employment #Zones = #SEZs
48/n #SupplyChains to #India
49/n Return of 1 #SupplyChain to #India (#Diamond )
50/n If #SupplyChain exit can destroy 1.9 mi jobs in #China ( ) it can also create 1.9 mi jobs in #India, given right labor & tax policies (eg in Coastal Employment Zones #CEZs & SEZs = Special Employment Zones )
51/n #SupplyChains #China #Vietnam
52/n #SupplyChains #China #USA 🙏🏼 don't miss this opportunity @PiyushGoyal @nsitharaman @PMOIndia 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼

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More from @dravirmani

Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Jan 28, 2023
One should be inured to the pro-China, anti-India, bias of the Anglo Saxon world, & its subalterns [ jstor.org/stable/30030642 ], but sadly after 50 yrs, one is still not!
2/ir #India’s #rise is causing deep disquiet in the #Anglo #Saxon #World and among its subalterns. #Information #War will intensify in next 3 years, and won’t subside till India becomes the third largest economy in (current) USD.
3/ir Great slogan for the #Information #War on India
Read 5 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Jan 28, 2023
As a National Security Strategist * find it a little difficult to interpret such statements by Senior officers of the US armed forces, in the broader context of the PRC threat!
2/nss Sweet spot for PLA aggression: #Elections in raucous democracies. => Lesson: Armed forces in threatened countries, should have more operational autonomy during election period.
3/nss Post script: #India’s general election is also in 2024
Read 4 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Jan 28, 2023
#Perspective #Planning anyone (🙈🙉🙊) ?
2/res Ths who’ve never done #research in lifetime find it difficult to understand, why this is critical, for directing commissioning & using, good policy relevant research [An internal core of researchers is key to success]. For them ideas & analysis can be bought like software📦
3/res Any org that merely reacts to media headlines, & questions raised by critics, is like a consultancy organisation, not a think tank. It can never anticipate problems, nor create imaginative new solutions. Worlds top consultancy orgs. reward salesmanship not analysis… 4/res
Read 5 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Jan 5, 2023
#Emedicine, #Telemedicine can/will revolutionise (high quality) #health delivery not only in #India’s rural and remote areas, but also in rural areas of much richer countries!
2/tmed #Telemedicine #Egalth
3/tmed #Telemedicine
Read 6 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Oct 7, 2022
Buddha's Golden Mean (#BGM): "Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it, those who are obsessed by it, will never see a brighter future"
2/ncrh Remember these are the same folks whose neo-colonial progeny, preach us "principles" to support their selfish interests, and to "shame" us into working against our own national interest
3/ncrh The response must be rational, not emotional. Learn about India's (own) National interest, and the national interests of the major powers (Hint: USSR & PRC were colonial) to understand how "principles" are used & misused!
Read 4 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Sep 25, 2022
As I have said in many talks, and as the author @pujamehra wrote, the period 2004-13, was a, “lost decade” in terms of economic policy reform, not in terms of GDP growth rate. The latter was due to the lagged effects of 1991-2003 reforms.
The effects of sept 2019-March 2022 #policy #reforms will therefore, likely not be visible in the growth rate, before FY 24 or FY 25. However, the quicker the changes in law are reflected in the rules & procedure applicable to firms, the quicker they will be reflected in growth!
3/gdpi Remember “#India #Shining” campaign in 2003-4: Bcs of lags btwn enactment of policy rfrm into law, their translation into rules & procedures, and decisions by investors, it took years to translate policy reforms into aggregate growth. Wrld econ is in much worse shape today
Read 9 tweets

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