A thread on Trump's trip to France because it is very odd. He decided to go to Paris in August when he cancelled his military parade out of a fury with how much DC authorities said it would cost. See & 1/n
He thought he would just be attending another French military parade which he loved the first time he attended (it gave him the idea to hold his own). What he did not know was that Macron was also planning something called the Paris Peace Forum 2/n
The Paris Peace Forum was intended to be a global high level conference celebrating global governance. Macron was to host and leaders from over 80 countries would attend in the inaugural year. My colleague @celiabelin writes about it here brookings.edu/blog/order-fro… 3/n
Macron intended it as a mild rebuke to America First-- France would stand up for multilateralism and cooperation. Trump's decision to visit created a huge headache. What if Trump and Bolton showed up? What would they say? It would be like a red rag to a bull. 4/n
I asked numerous administration & European officials if Trump would go. They all said they didn't know but privately admitted that they were avoiding the topic w/ Trump. They knew it was potentially explosive. France did not push the invite. And the admin did not seek it. 5/n
The upshot is that Trump is leaving the day before it starts. This is part of a European strategy of avoidance-- minimize interaction with the president. They have concluded that things are most unstable when he is in the room so reduce those interactions. 6/n
This is also why NATO will not be holding a leaders summit next year. Minimize interaction with the American president. Trump's team are happy to play along. So the summit will be at the Foreign Minister/ Sec State level. 7/n
Meanwhile guess who is participating in the forum for multilateralism-- Putin. And China is presenting its One Belt One Road. What should be an occasion for standing up to neo-authoritarianism is instead an example of American abdication of leadership 8/n
Bolton's role should not be forgotten. If McMaster was still National Security Advisor he may have been able to manage the situation but he is so radical on international law that France prefers to completely marginalize the US to avoid a diplomatic disaster. Fin. 9/9
