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Some thoughts on Theresa May's latest Brexit defeat. There are now two more major votes this week-- one on whether parliament approves of no deal and the second on whether to request an extension. Of these two, the first is only indicative. If parliament rejects no deal...1/8
...it still happens automatically on March 29 unless something else changes. That something else is the extension. So, if parliament rejects no deal they also have to accept the extension to make it count. It is possible that they could reject no deal & reject an extension 2/8
..which would be an almighty clusterf***. The extension could be tight, esp if May votes against it, but it should pass. It came close before and there were quite a few Tory MPs who voted against on the promise that they would have another chance. So let's assume that...3/8
the Commons votes for an extension. Then the PM will have to negotiate that with Brussels. Their view as I understand it is that the EU doesn't want a short extension that would postpone the crisis. They want a longer extension that would allow for a general election or ...4/8
...a referendum. Of those two, they believe an election is more likely. So this would be between 9 months and 21 months (when the UK's current contribution to the EU runs out). If those talks break down, then the UK has only two options left-- leave with no deal or...5/8
...unilaterally withdraw article 50. My own view on what May should do from her point of view is hold a referendum on her deal and take her case to the people. But she is v unlikely to do that as she views a new referendum as a personal failure. What I think will happen is: 6/8
A general election 35%; a softer Brexit 30%; a referendum 20%; no deal 15%. The first 3 require an extension. The party system has now completely broken down. We are seeing the emergence of party like caucuses, in addition to ERG, within the two main parties. 7/8
This makes the whole situation v fluid and increases the chances that parliament will take control away from the government. It is surely the greatest political crisis in the UK since the Irish home rule crisis of 1914. 8/8
