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YouGov
@YouGov
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
THREAD/ We take an in-depth look at EU Parliament voting intention. First up, new headline results:

Brexit Party - 35%
Lib Dem - 16%
Lab - 15%
Green - 10%
Con - 9%
Change UK - 5%
UKIP - 3%
Other - 7%
(Fieldwork 12-16 May)
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Only 35% of 2017 Labour voters - and just 20% of 2017 Conservative voters - say they intend to vote for those parties again at the EU Parliament elections. 62% of Tory voters will back the Brexit Party, while 43% of Lab voters will go Lib Dem/Green/CHUK yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Labour will see 47% of its Leave-voting supporters back the Brexit Party at the EU Parliament elections. A quarter (23%) of Remain-voting Conservatives will back the Lib Dems
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Even those people whose preferred Brexit outcome is Theresa May's deal would rather vote Brexit Party (34%) than Conservative (26%)
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Age is a key factor in voting intention for the EU Parliament elections. The older someone is, the more likely they are to vote Brexit Party. Likewise, the younger someone is the more likely they are to back the anti-Brexit parties (LD/G/CHUK) or Labour
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
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YouGov
@YouGov
EU Parliament voting intention (10-11 April)

Lab - 24%
Con - 16%
Brexit Party- 15%
UKIP - 14%
Lib Dem - 8%
Green - 8%
Change UK - 7%
SNP/Plaid - 6%
Other - 1%

yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
The Conservative/Labour vote is already down from 2017, and they are set to do even worse at the EU Parliament elections because many of their remaining voters are willing to temporarily lend their votes to smaller pro/anti Brexit parties yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Here's a static version of that gif. 22% of those who would vote Conservative in a general election would lend their vote to UKIP/Brexit Party for the EU Parliament election. Likewise, 11% of current Lab voters would lend their vote to an anti-Brexit party yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Read 3 tweets
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YouGov
@YouGov
THREAD/ Here's a round-up of everything we know about what the public thinks of The Independent Group, including some new nuggets yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
45% of Britons say they are following the news around the group very or fairly closely, while 47% aren't following it closely and 9% aren't aware of the story at all yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
By 49% to 28%, Britons think that TIG MPs should have to fight for their seats in by-elections yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Read 9 tweets
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YouGov
@YouGov
Brexit indecisiveness is seriously damaging Jeremy Corbyn. Our new favourability survey finds the Labour leader on an all-time low of -45 - lower even than it was prior to the 2017 general election campaign yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
After the 2017 general election, 2 of the top 3 words associated with Corbyn were positive - now none of the top 5 are.

% saying Corbyn is... (Jun 2017 vs now)

Honest - 30% ↘️16%
Intelligent - 24%↘️16%

Out of touch - 22%↗️34%
Dishonest - 13%↗️23%

yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
We asked people who said they used to like Corbyn, but no longer do, why that was the case. 43% of them blamed his behaviour around Brexit yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Read 4 tweets

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Lee Griffin
@Niaccurshi
Here's why I think that rather than piling the votes in to Labour or Tories, you should be piling your votes into a *range* of Pro-EU candidates at the next election. I'm going to use my region, the South West and Gibraltar as an example...
The breakdown in 2014 was roughly:

UKIP: 484k (33%)
Tory: 433k (30%)
Labour: 206k (14%)
Green: 166k (11.5%)
Lib Dem: 160k (11%)

There were of course others, but all small numbers and mostly independent so not particularly pertinent as it stands
Now it's super early days to understand exactly what will happen in public opinion nearer election day, but I'm going to...

... WITH A HUGE CAVEAT OF THIS BEING EXTREMELY HYPOTHETICAL ....

... use the April "Open Europe" poll to make assumptions, especially re: Brexit Party
Read 22 tweets
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Dom Walsh
@DomWalsh13
New @OpenEurope poll conducted by @HanburyStrategy on UK voting intentions for #EP2019 👇

Labour - 37.8%
Conservatives - 23%
Brexit Party - 10.3%
Lib Dems - 8.1%
UKIP - 7.5%
Change UK/Independent Group - 4.1%
SNP - 4.1%
Greens - 4%
Very fragmented - an interesting exercise is to group the smaller parties by their position on #Brexit. That gives you:

- Labour 37.8%
- Conservatives 23%
- Hard Remain parties 20.3% (LDs + ChUK + SNP + Greens)
- Hard Leave parties 17.8% (Brexit Party + UKIP)
And an interesting side note on new parties: the Brexit Party are more appealing to Leave voters (48%) than Change UK/TIG are with Remain voters (33%). But Change UK appeal more to Leave voters (23%), than the Brexit Party do to Remain voters (18%) 👇

Read 6 tweets
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
Read 125 tweets
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Colm Ó Mongáin
@colmomongain
OUT NOW: Thanks to @livuniheseltine #Brexit Republic has got its hands on the audio the hard hitting Dec 13 speech by former UK Perm Rep to the EU Sir Ivan Rogers. Listen here: rte.ie/news/brexit/20…
Full text here: news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/ful…
And if you'd prefer it on Soundcloud....
soundcloud.com/user-448847971…
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
104 pages of the #Brexit #WhitePaper reduced to 10 slides.
Especially for those concerned for @BorderIrish, @BelfastAgmt,
& with more sense than time.

@DPhinnemore & I have scrutinised the WP in light of #JointReport commitments to NI/IRL & the UK's alternative #backstop.
1/10
A bit of context-setting (plus explanation of our imaginative colour coding).

The White Paper is in part an effort by UK govt to prove a NI-specific #backstop to be unnecessary. But remember Protocol for NI/IRL in the Withdrawal Agmt is abt much more than a customs border.

2/10
A reminder of where we are up to on that Protocol on NI/IRL in the draft Withdrawal Agreement.

With added stars 🌟 to identify which bits the White Paper attempts to address (or negate) most directly.

3/10
Read 11 tweets
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Simon Cox
@SimonFRCox
UK is heading for #Brexit In Name Only. And maybe the slow, spasmodic death of British nationalism. Thread.
I’ve never believed UK & EU would agree terms on a new - indefinite - relationship. There’s a chasm between EU’s position & UK rhetoric 2/
Conservative Party backed EU for 50 years. Most grandees, funders and MPs still believe UK would do very badly if it left SM. Financial Times & Treasury agree 3/
Read 31 tweets

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