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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Summary of latest European election polling (incorporating today's new YouGov figures). Conclusion: the two sensible pro-Remain voting options in England are LibDems and Greens. Change UK is just too far behind to have any hope of getting an MEP.
In Scotland, the LibDems seem set to pick up 1 MEP and the SNP 3 MEPs based on the very latest polling from Yougov, so either is a good pick.
In Wales, the pro-Remain parties other than Plaid Cymru are nowhere electorally, so vote PC for maximum pro-Remain goodness.
Northern Ireland is too complicated to give a voting order, but the pro-Remain parties to target are Sinn Fein, Alliance and the SDLP.
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
*FINAL* Guide to pro-Remain Tactical Voting at the European Elections

The aim of the guide is to maximise the pro-Remain vote so that it produces the highest possible number of MEPs.

#marr #ridge #pienaar #bbcsp #WestminsterHour #bbcnews #BBCPolitics #C4News #itvnews #skynews
Since we're trying to maximise the number of MEPs won by pro-remain parties, that means voting for the parties that have the best chance of getting MEPs, not necessarily those you usually support. Brexit's the massive issue that's front and centre this time around.
Brexit trumps party loyalty. It trumps past grudges. It trumps everything. This isn't a winner-takes-all general election. Nobody's forming a government on the back of this. But it's a chance to send a loud, clear message.
Read 22 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Ok, time for some hard truths about the European elections.

Yes, the Brexit Party will "win", if by win we mean "take the largest share of the vote by a single party". But that's largely irrelevant. This isn't first past the post, winner takes all. They get nothing except MEPs.
And, yes, Farage will go on TV along with his minions and, with the help of a pliant media, spin the elections as some sort of massive landslide for Brexit.

But actually the vote share of the strongly pro-Brexit parties looks to be down on 2014, if recent polls are accurate.
But it's not only about raw vote counts, or percentages, it's also of course about MEPs.

In the 2014 European elections, the Tories and UKIP took 43 out of 73 MEPs.

At the moment, the Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP together look like they're only going to win between 34-38 MEPs.
Read 5 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Farage may have a checkered history, dubious funding, suspect connections, candidates with abhorrent views, a party with no manifesto - but you can bet anything that he will still claim full victory in the European elections no matter how many questions hang over him.
That's the lesson of the 2016 referendum, unfortunately. So pointing and complaining/shouting achieves nothing. The way to hurt him is to ratchet up the pro-Remain vote count, grab every possible MEP, and put on a proper fight.
And if you're expecting wrongdoing to take him down, you've not really woken up to the horrible reality of life in 2019. (Exhibit 1 of many, many: Trump)
Read 3 tweets

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Lib-Dems Now 🔶 #LibDems #LibDemsNow
@LibDemsNow
The #LibDems bear NO responsibility for Brexit.

Andrew Adonis is lying once more.

Let's analyse his tweet, point by point...

The #LibDems *did* lead the way in calling for an in/out referendum on The UK retaining EU membership.

Nick Clegg called for this on numerous occasions while an MP, but most notably while leader of The #LibDems in 2008.

He did so, precisely because The #LibDems are pro-Remain.
Clegg wanted an #EURef in 2008, as Gordon Brown didn't offer one when signing The Lisbon Treaty.

The news-media climate was MUCH more EU-friendly, over a decade ago.

It would have been safe to offer an #EURef AT THAT TIME - and The #LibDems would have campaigned to #Remain.
Read 14 tweets
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Chester for Europe #FBPE
@chesterforeu
New #hustingsthread.

Having looked at the opening remarks I have picked out highlights and links to some of the questions covered in our excellent #hustings last Saturday. #EUelections2019 #PeoplesVote
“What Areas of Policy are better coordinated at EU level rather than National Level?”

Julie Ward of @uklabour views areas of refugee policy and sharing responsibility for them and also online safety and security, holding the platforms to account as crucial work for the EU.
Link to answers from all candidates to this question.

Question 1 What areas of of Policy are better coordinated at EU level rather than national leve?

Read 28 tweets
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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
"Pro-EU parties to use European elections as 'soft referendum'"
* the approach outlined (no alliances or pacts, compete with other pro-EU parties) is literally the opposite of a referendum approach (combine/aggregate: seek majority).
theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
It doesn't work as a proxy referendum
britishfuture.org/articles/europ…

Probable Change UK, Greens, LibDems, Renew contest in some regions reduces no of pro-Remain MEPs, eg 4-way split of 15-20% can "waste" votes under PR lists. (Eg waste < 5%, or end wasting 15% = no seats x4 if unlucky)
A particular risk in regions that are smaller & more challenging (eg especially north-east; also east midlands, east of england). It may be important in Wales, where Plaid means 5-way division of non-Labour pro-EU. Scotland a bit different again: major pro-EU party in SNP
Read 20 tweets
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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
New @cage_warwick paper with @EleAla on "Who is NOT voting for Brexit anymore?" Using local area estimates from @chrishanretty based on data from a 20k @Survation poll we study how the level & geography of support for Leave has changed since 2016... goo.gl/CkUkgD 1/
Swing away from #Leave is widespread and happening broadly across the UK, specifically in England, Wales, Cornwall and the North. Overall estimated level of support for Leave is 6 percentage points lower across UK, but masks significant heterogeneity. 2/
We follow similar approach as in earlier work with @essobecker and @DennisNovy to decompose the geographic variation to identify which factors are capturing the variation across the UK in the swing away from #Leave to #Remain.... 3/
Read 8 tweets
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Sue #FBPE
@libdemsue
How much should @LibDems focus on foreign policy? asks @libdemvoice>
Much more than we currently do in my view. For these reasons:
1. Apart from the current dispute w/ Russia, Brexit has made politics more parochial & domestic-obsessed than ever. I believe the #LibDems should focus on bringing a wider, international perspective & that would also serve to distinguish us from middle England Tories & Labour.
2. Our economy, NHS, environment (& other things the @LibDems care abt) can't be fixed unilaterally/through domestic means alone. We need cross-border, multilateral approaches. Indeed this thinking is at the ♥️ of our campaign for the UK to stay in the EU & an #ExitFromBrexit.
Read 8 tweets

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