Thread by @runvc

1/ The @nytimes piece on UFOs is pretty 🤯. Do I think its likely we're currently being visited by intelligent extraterrestrial life? No, but I think its a reasonable explanation for the observed phenomenon given the range of possible explanations.

nytimes.com/2019/05/26/us/…

2/ There are 5 possible explanations:
1) Its our own classified tech
2) its the tech of another state
3) The sightings are caused by hysteria, false perceptions, etc
4) The objects are real, non-sentient, undiscovered phenomenon
5) The objects are evidence of ET Intelligence

3/ Lets address each possible explanation and why it may or may not make sense given what we actually know.

4a/ Explanation #1: Its our own classified tech our pilots just don't know about it.

The tech described seems unchanged over decades and if it were our best cutting edge tech, it would be evolving quickly.

4b/ We wouldn't routinely risk exposing top secret programs to pilots who are not cleared to know of their existence or their capabilities.

4c/ It seems unlikely that our own pilots would risk colliding with one another midair.

4d/ Harry Reid + the Pentagon established a program to figure out what's going on which implies they don't already know. (Of course this is far from dispositive)

4e/ Based on material findings Harry Reid asked for his program to be upgraded to a special access program which the Pentagon declined. If the aircraft were from a program so secret Reid didn't know about it, the Pentagon should have granted the clearance upgrade here.

5a/ Explanation #2: Its the classified tech of another nation state

The tech described seems unchanged over decades which wouldn't be true if it were a rival's.

5b/ We should expect to see some of these capabilities incorporated into our rivals' 5th gen fighters and we don't.

5c/ Why casually & continually expose your most secret tech to a geopolitical rival? A couple tests of stealth, sure but hundreds of exposures over decades? + You wouldn't show the crazy high G maneuvers. If you did show it, you would own it for deterrence purposes.

5d/ There just aren't many rivals who could credibly be 10 years+ ahead of us in aircraft and propulsion systems design.

5e/ If anyone thought this was the case we'd be pouring billions into the program (not a paltry $22M) to identify and capture these things as it would represent a terrifying and untenable strategic threat.

6a/ Explanation #3: The sightings are caused by hysteria, false perceptions, sensor glitches, weather balloons, etc

6b/ Fighter pilots are analytical, highly trained observers who specialize in dealing with high cognitive load under stressful circumstances. While a few reports could be dismissed, dozens over decades across many different pilots and regions seems to be a stretch.

6c/ Every sensor set has a weakness that can generate blindspots or artifacts but some of these claims appear to have been captured concurrently by different sensors (radar+visual or multiple differing radars, etc), which makes error incredibly unlikely.

6d/ If, as the reports indicate, Harry Reid's program discovered material information that was worthy of special access program designation, it wouldn't have been pilot perception error, a software glitch or weather balloons.

7a/ Explanation #4: The objects are real, non-sentient, undiscovered phenomenon

7b/ The reports seem to indicate behavior that isn't random or indifferent to the presence of the US pilots, which makes it highly likely there is some intelligence controlling the objects. Non living things respond to stimuli in ways different than living things

7c/ Its hard to imagine a purely natural phenomenon that can be seen with the naked eye, can hover, travel at slow and super sonic speeds and can stop on a dime. Even harder to imagine if something like that existed we wouldn't see it more frequently in nature or over cities.

8a/ Explanation #5: The objects are evidence of extra terrestrial Intelligence

8b/ If the observed phenomenon are being controlled by extraterrestrial intelligence and they're clearly interested in seeing what we are doing, then why haven't "they" contacted us?

8c/ Cosmic distances vs. the speed of light make it hard to bridge the gap between civilizations (with our level of scientific understanding)

9/ None of the potential explanation are satisfying but I think the 3 easiest explanations #'s 1-3 are also the least likely to be accurate.

That leaves us with explanations #4 & #5 both of which are problematic but if we try to put biases aside ET IQ seems shockingly reasonable

Fin/ Again, not saying an ET intelligence is observing us or interacting in some way but I want to express joy at how likely #4 or #5 seem and the potential these phenomenon provide us to learn more about the universe. They pose a beautiful question.... lets find the answers