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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The 2 main parties in Britain, once famous around the globe for its stable two-party system, are now on just 36%

Brexit, ironically, is making our politics more European

Brexit Party 26% (-)
Lib Dem 22% (+2)
Labour 19% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (-1)
Green 8% (-1)

YouGov Jun 9-10
It is tempting to view the fragmentation of British politics solely and simply through the lens of Brexit. This is wrong.

Fragmentation has been a long time coming, with rising support for challengers, rising volatility & declining partisan loyalty visible for many years
Brexit & fallout clearly exacerbating deeper trends, adding another layer onto a cake that was already pretty volatile; rise of SNP in Scotland; rise of UKIP in England; surprise Conservative majority in 2015; rise of Corbyn, all of which preceded 2016 vote for Brexit
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More from @GoodwinMJ see all

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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Attitudes toward the EU -approve or disapprove- by party political ID from our pre-European election survey

Overall 44% of Brits "approve" but 44% "disapprove" (again little evidence ppl changing minds)

Source: 2019 Essex-UTD EU Pre-Election Election Survey
*Green Euroscepticism is another thing that's not got sufficient media attention
Maybe we should put the pro-EU Tories & Brexit Party voters in a pub with the anti-EU Greens, anti-EU SNP and anti-EU Lib Dems.
Politics Goggle Box for the nation.
Read 3 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Hi Twitter, we just released our new paper on Britain's 2019 EP election:

"Resurgent Remain and a Rebooted Revolt on the Right"

Download it direct from my website
matthewjgoodwin.org/academic.html

Best, Matt
Do follow @olhe @CaitlinMilazzo.
I can't persuade David Cutts to join Twitter
Findings:

Brexit Party didn't hurt Tories much, picked up 2014 UKIP vote
Lib Dems hit Tories hard
Leavers have turnout problem
Lib Dems not just a Remain backlash, more complex
Farage hurt Lab in left behind areas
Lab 2017 coalition eroding fast
No easy way out for Lab & Con now
It's now clear that one irony of sorts is ever since Britain voted to leave the EU its politics look more European -political fragmentation, polarisation, volatility, challenger parties doing better, a resurgent populism, those things EU member states grappling with we have too
Read 21 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Looks like I was spot on ..

Labour 30.9% (-17.2)
Brexit Party 28.9% (+28.9)
Cons 21.4% -25.5%

-Farage's ghost of First Past the Post returns
-Though on these numbers Brexit Party would bring down Tories
-Pressure on Corbyn to drift to Remain cools
#PeterboroughByElection
Two competing interpretations of the result for the Brexit Party. The charitable version is that the party is only 8 weeks old, had no data on voters, which hit its ground game, but still came within 700 votes of Labour & took more than enough to cost Tories next election
To that you might add that Peterborough is about 203rd on the list of "UKIP/Brexit Party" seats so a little further down than Rochester and Strood (which UKIP won) but a long way from most fertile territory
Read 4 tweets

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@BrunoBrussels
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thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/m…
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
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Rachel Heyburn #FBPE #WeAreTheOppositionNow
@Rachel5742
1. Worst national leadership in my lifetime forcing through the most damaging, misguided & missold policy I can remember. Ideology & vested self interest replace statesmanship, soundbites replace sound judgement & autocracy subverts democracy.
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