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Thomas Shugart
@tshugart3
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
At this risk of piling on to an earlier thread of mine on this topic, Malaysia's defence minister really ought to talk to Dr. Michael Beckley of Tufts University about Malaysia's chances in a conflict with China...
...as he thinks that Malaysia could "plausibly deny sea and air control to a restricted Chinese task force."
He also assesses that Malaysia's navy and air force are pretty well-equipped and trained, constituting "A2/AD forces" that "may be more capable than they seem on paper".
Dr. Beckley's full analysis can be read here: mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.11…
My previous thread on his article here:
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Thomas Shugart
@tshugart3
I happened to read this article (with great interest) recently and I have some...thoughts about it:
On the topic of the military balance in Asia, it was published in International Security, a peer-reviewed academic journal published by Harvard’s @BelferCenter.

belfercenter.org/publication/em…
In general, the author seemed pretty sanguine about China’s military challenge.

In summary, “China’s maritime neighbors can prevent China from dominating East Asia militarily, allowing the United States to avoid the costs and risks of expanding its forces in the region...", as
Read 40 tweets
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Thomas Shugart
@tshugart3
Some thoughts on the NDS Commission report & the South China Sea:
As most folks interested in national security issues are aware, the NDS Commission recently released an assessment of renewed great power competition and the state of the U.S. military. usip.org/sites/default/…
The headline of the analysis was one of grave concern, that: “America’s military superiority—the hard-power backbone of its global influence and national security—has eroded to a dangerous degree.” washingtonpost.com/world/national…
As sure as the sun rises, from predictable places arose a chorus of retort, accusing the report’s authors of focusing too much on military spending to the detriment of other priorities, or of threat inflation on behalf of the "Military Industrial Complex". nationalinterest.org/feature/proble…
Read 28 tweets
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Thomas Shugart
@tshugart3
Some thoughts on Pakistan, China, and the Carter Doctrine: A few months ago, the first reports came out that China was looking to establish a combined air and naval base in Jiwani, Pakistan washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jan/…
This report was subsequently confirmed by other sources in the following months. maritime-executive.com/editorials/wil…
Building a base in Jiwani (or nearby) would make a great deal of sense for China. After all, China is desperately dependent on imported oil to run its ever-growing economy. And Jiwani sits nearby the incredibly vital Strait of Hormuz. maritime-executive.com/article/china-…
Read 41 tweets

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