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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Suspect Peterborough result more significant for Lab than Con internal politics. Cons have already priced in defeat to Brexit party and BXP views are, to put it mildly, already getting quite an airing in the leadership contest 1/?
Whereas Lab aren't changing leader and, as yet, show little interest in changing tack in response to haemorrhage of Remain votes in EP election. If they win Peterborough or run BXP close, leadership will use this to argue for continuing with their fence sitting approach 2/?
*If* though Lab were to come third due to Remainer switching en masse to LDs, then there will be even more pressure to switch towards a more Remain-y approach
Lab 3rd place or worse looks unlikely on the face of it given 2017 Peterborough results, but by-elections throw up strange results even in normal times, and these are not normal times. Lab coming behind LDs looked unlikely just 2 weeks before EP elections too.
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More from @robfordmancs see all

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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
This is exceptionally disingenuous and should not go unchallenged. Clay personally attacked an author, attacked a book he admits he hasn't read, and attacked the awards committee which gave it a prize (including me). He has repeatedly refused to substantiate any of these attacks.
It is utterly absurd for him to now claim "no ill will or malicious intentions". Aggressive, personal and unfounded attacks which he refuses to retract or explain are the dictionary definition of ill will and malice.
It is akin to someone throwing a pint of beer over another person's head for no reason at all and then say they had "no ill will" and complaining they are a "victim of the mob" when the thus drenched individual and his friends take vocal exception.
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Important result for the psychological effects of FPP. “Brexit party can’t win seats, even in a by-election in ideal circumstances” is a powerful argument and still intact.
Lab first and LDs 4th will also reduce pressure on Lab to adopt a stronger/clearer Remain stance and may stall LDs momentum. They’ll be hoping the recall petition in Brecon and Radnorshire delivers another by-election in more favourable terrain
The reprieve for the traditional parties may prove fleeting, a steady stream of polls putting them behind could yet erode belief in their invincibility or an autumn Brexit crisis could still realign voting further. But it is a reprieve nonetheless.
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Not sure how these trends - radical right well down, centre-right flat, centre-left flat, liberal/green/radical left up - can be squared with The Narrative (Danish update) - "centre left only won by being anti-immigration"
Will be interesting to see vote change at individual level, but even if centre-left picked up some radical right support, this was evidently offset by losses elsewhere, so "copy the radical right on immigration" doesn't look like a net vote winner. 2/3
3/3 And, assuming the exit poll is accurate, the biggest net gainers look to be parties whose worldview, on immigration and other things, is right on the opposite pole to the radical right. So the overall net shift is strongly *away* from populist/nationalist worldview.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick
Peterborough by-election results shows the accuracy of @FocalDataHQ MRP analysis for @hopenothate and @BestForBritain. Our MRP suggested Labour had 30.3% support (vote was 31%), combined Brexit & Tory Party support on 48% (vote was 49%), and LD support on 15% (vote was 12%)
This makes us very confident about accuracy of our MRP data. Our analysis of polling of 15,231 people sees @UKLabour to be largest party with 251 seats, @brexitparty_uk with 135 seats, @Conservatives on 132, @theSNP on 55, @LibDems on 53' @Plaid_Cymru 5 and @TheGreenParty 1
The big takeaway from our poll is that there is no realistic path to victory for @UKLabour as long as it has its current #Brexit position. For every one vote it loses to the @brexitparty_uk it loses three votes to @LibDems and @TheGreenParty
Read 5 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) some of our new #Brexit Party MEPs @jaglancy @BrexitAlex @MartinDaubney & @Fox_Claire have been talking about "defending democracy"

So on that note I'd like to ask them
a) are you actually a party member?
b) is it true I can't join BxP, only "subscribe", like Netflix?
@jaglancy @BrexitAlex @MartinDaubney @Fox_Claire 2)
c) is it true that I therefore can't vote on BxP policy?
d) Has BxP *really* been designed so that Farage cannot be challenged as Leader? How do you feel about that?
e) are there any actual democratic processes at all inside BxP?
@jaglancy @BrexitAlex @MartinDaubney @Fox_Claire 3)
This idea of "consulting subscribers to build the manifesto"
f) how will that work democratically?
g) How do you count "consultations"?
h) who does the counting?
i) who decides the "will of the subscribers"?
j) are you comfortable describing this as a "democratic process"?
Read 5 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
That the Lib Dems top a poll of Westminter voting intention is not the surprise.

That it has taken so long for this to come to pass is the odd thing.

businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-li…
Brexit has made being pro-EU or anti-EU is the primary cleavage in British politics.

The Lib Dems have understood it. The Brexit Party has understood it.

The Tories and Labour are struggling still.
Whether it is *desirable* that this is so is another question. Corbyn seems downright annoyed that it is ("We want to talk about ending austerity!" you hear him scream).

But this is the basis on which a forthcoming election will be fought.

Keep on with Brexit or stop it.
Read 5 tweets
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Allen White
@LudgateAlien
1/ A short thread on the YouGov poll on the #EUelections2019 #Poll

My own interpretations and views, using information from the YouGov website.

Headline is Brexit Party leading at 30% followed by Labour at 21%.

29-30 April
2/ So what can we learn from this poll beyond the headlines?

Firstly, it is a poll. Polls have a margin of error.

Next, the headline numbers exclude Don’t Know (DK) and Won’t Vote (WV).

This chart shows the extent of these categories 👇🏽
3/ As can be seen in the chart, DK topped the poll! Ahead of even the BP.

And WV came in 3rd, behind the BP but ahead of all other parties. More people stated they Will Not Vote than those who support the Labour Party. Astonishing really!

More about this later.
Read 21 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So am told this was pretty spicy encounter...but it speaks to the extent that ERG @Jacob_Rees_Mogg @OwenPaterson have just had their heads in the sand on the political ground realities in Ireland - like them or not. 1/short thread
@Jacob_Rees_Mogg @OwenPaterson It is no good simply complaining that the Irish or the British governments are not putting their back into technical solutions for an invisible border - which exist nowhere on the planet btw.

The politics of the @BorderIrish are everything in this discussion. /2
@Jacob_Rees_Mogg @OwenPaterson @BorderIrish Every constituency on that border is Sinn Fein controlled.

You only need to scratch the surface for a second to know that there is no political will to make the fantasy tech border work.

This is as much a reality as camera gantries, drones and blockchain. /3
Read 18 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets

Trending hashtags

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