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I would speculate that 3 questions may determine the outcome of the Brexit process. 1) Will Labour shift its policy towards 2nd referendum and backing Remain? 2) Can Parliament thwart a no-deal Brexit 3) Will EU agree to extend Art50 beyond Oct 31? @CER_EU /1
To all 3 questions my answer is probably but not certainly yes. If I am right, a plausible scenario is this: Johnson becomes PM; he tries to renegotiate backstop; EU says no; Johnson declares for a no deal Brexit; Parliament stops him, perhaps with a motion of no confidence; /2
that leads to a general election, and Johnson agrees to ask for an extension of Art 50 while election is held (he would lose votes if he did not); EU agrees; Labour, boosted by its support for Remain, wins the largest number of MPs and forms a govt with Libs, PC & SNP. /3
This government holds a referendum. To be legitimate it has to include hard Brexit option. There could be 2 qus, like Scottish ref of 1979 (when the questions were do you want devolution; and if devolution wins, do you want Scot Parl to have tax-raising powers?). /4
First question could be leave or remain, second could be if leave wins, withdrawal agreement or no deal Brexit. Latter would have to be defined in very broad terms, to be interpreted by Parliament. ENDS
