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First reactions to EP elections a short thread. As I just said on @bbcworldservice, biggest impact could be on national not EU politics. In UK, @UKLabour will probably shift to a policy of 2nd ref, in an effort to hold on to disappearing votes. /1
In Germany, SPD has done so badly cf Greens, it could quit governing coalition in an effort to survive. That could signal end of Merkel. In Italy, Salvini has done so well he could pull out of coalition in the hope that an election would allow him to lead a majority govt.. /2
As I predicted (alongside @DenisMacShane), the right populists have not done well enough to make a big impact on way EP works. EP will just be run by a coalition of EPP, S&D, ALDE and perhaps Greens, instead of EPP + S&D. Managing the EP will be a bit more complicated. /3
EP elections won't make much difference to Brexit. EU govts remain in place. They & Comm, even with a new president, will still say withdrawal agreement can't change in substance. But, if Farage makes a lot of noise in EP, Macron may find allies in saying no Art 50 extension. /4
.@EmmanuelMacron's moderate showing will not weaken him much at home, given abysmal performance of French socialists and republicans. He will remain a powerful figure in Europe but EP elections will make many EU leaders reluctant to back his ambitions for EU integration. /5 ENDS
