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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
BXP results make a new Tory leader backing No Deal by Oct 31st position almost certain...
But...

9.1 million people just voted for parties explicitly against No Deal (LD/G/L/CH/SNP...) ... vs 5.8m explicitly in favour...(BXP+Ukip) /1
By the way that is the second consecutive national poll after the General Election 2017 where manifestos against No Deal have got a majority of popular votes - and on a lower turnout, that majority against has now increased /2
... also the number so far make it far from clear that the entirety of the Conservative vote share loss went to Brexit Party - assuming some Labour to BXP too - then a small but electorally important band of long forgotten Con Remainers went to Libs/CHUK too /3
Anyway this heads towards a non-elected new PM of a minority Government using Royal Prerogative late on at an EU Summit to go for No Deal on basis of 2016 popular mandate, with No Deal not having received popular vote mandates at subsequent national elections in 2017 & 2019 /4
More than 9.1m now. On current tally last Thursday

9,489,558 voted for parties explicitly opposed to No Deal Brexit, and Brexit fullstop*

and
5,904,955 for parties explicitly for No Deal backers **

* (LD/ Lab/G/SNP/PC/CH/SF/UUP/All/SDLP/UKEU/WEP)

**(BXP/UKIP/TUV/ED)

.../5
In my research for the above tweets I was quite surprised, in a way, to find the DUP did not seek a No Deal mandate in its latest manifesto... there is one passing reference to it. UUP spoke out against it - but what in this is pro No Deal 👇🏽 mydup.com/images/uploads… /6
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More from @faisalislam see all

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
NEW: Sounds like a rather interesting call between PM Johnson and the Taoiseach... the latter ‘emphasised’ backstop “necessary as a consequence of decisions taken in the UK and by the UK government”, acc to Irish readout..
.. also the Taoiseach explained the EU was united in its view that Withdrawal Agreement could not be reopened” thus far re Alternative Arrangements “satisfactory options have yet to be identified and demonstrated”
And said Varadkar “restated the need for both governments to be fully committed to the Good Friday Agreement, the protection of the Peace Process and restoration of institutions” and “recalled the Agreement requires sov Govt to exercise power with rigorous impartiality”
Read 5 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Today PM reiterated: a million to one “exactly where I would put the odds” of No Deal, & “absolutely not” working assumption, as Cab minister in charge suggested in writing yday.
meanwhile PMOS said he’d meet EU leaders when backstop position changes, and no contact with Varadkar
Game Theory argument for this approach - and El Erian below explains why it might work...

1. Commit credibly to No Deal - thru Cabinet appointments, spending
2. Try to isolate Dublin. Force its choice btwn backstop and November No Deal
3. Do better deal.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
... but in order to send credible message on No Deal, PM needs to ramp up expectations of it, not play down.

This is because tens of thousands of small biz have not even taken most basic step in customs preparation because its a waste of working capital if No Deal not happening
Read 7 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
NEW:
Britain’s biggest charitable funder of science, Wellcome Trust, writes to new PM, praise his promise of thriving science sector, says No Deal is “a threat to that”. Chair, ex MI5 chief Eliza Manningham Buller letter to PM said Brexit already damaging scientist recruitment...
Lady Manningham Buller told the BBC that Wellcome’s billion pound a year funding for science in the UK reflected fact UK already “a science superpower” but “anxious” that status “on the wane” from “rupture” with European collaboration. Said funding & immigration policy vital...
She also said there were some post Brexit opportunities to shape global regulation of new technologies such as Artifical Inteligence and genomic medicine... but she pointed out the 50 per cent fall in apps from EU to study at Sanger Institute in Cambridge
Read 8 tweets

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
New Tory leader, then Parliament sits for . . .

2 days --> then Summer recess

Then Parliament sits for 7 days --> then conferences

Then Parliament sits for 8 days --> then Euco October 17th
So between now and the next Euco on October 17th, Parliament will have 17 sitting days.
And I'm saying it's impossible to get everything done in that time even if you tried
We're not going to sort out Brexit in those 17 days.
17 days of parliamentary business spread over the next four months.
Read 5 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
New Tory leader takes over on Monday, the 22nd of July.

When this happened with Gordon Brown, and John Major before him, they were taking over government with a ready majority.
This time there's no majority to take over.
The first thing the new Tory leader is going to have to do is get the support of the DUP.
If they can't secure DUP support, then they can't win a vote of confidence, and we're straight into a general election.

A general election in August?
And this is where the fuck up is going to come from. DUP support is no means guaranteed, and it will depend on a guarantee of no border in the Irish Sea.
Either promise them that or fight a general election because you won't get their support.
Read 4 tweets
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Brexit Expires
@BrexitExpires
BXP has no manifesto, no detailed policies & no plan for #Brexit (no, "just walk away" isn't a serious plan outside of a pub!)

Why are people willing to vote for a shady outfit that isn't a party, has dodgy finances & will likely adopt #UKIP's *no work* habit?
#EUelections2019
What's more, BXP now say they want to run in the next GE, even though the leader admits #Brexit isn't the answer to any of our domestic problems — you know, all those problems Leave voters thought Brexit was going to fix.

#EUelections2019
Somehow it feels like this is all about the salary and perks for some of the BXP's candidates, and that they're not taking the business of representing our country in an international forum seriously - as indeed those who were previously part of UKIP never have.

#EUelections2019
Read 24 tweets
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Stonewall Jackson
@1776Stonewall
New statistics out today show that since Trump has been president 1.5 million people are off of food stamps and a million out of poverty. . compare that with Obama, who put 14 million MORE people ON food stamps and 12 million MORE IN poverty.
Trump has created 5.3 million new jobs, 600,000 manufacturing jobs that Obama said were gone forever. 2 pipelines currently being built, ANWR is about to open, which is trillions of $. . also remember that Harvard studies showed that 93% of Obama jobs were minimum wage, part time
There is now a RECORD number of job openings, 7.3 million, and more Americans are working than EVER before in the history of the country. Wages are up the highest in over a decade and financial optimism is at an all time high
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Sergio Graziosi
@GraziosiSergio
What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

Thread.
1/n
To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
2/n
1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
3/n
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