Thread by @TheLastRefuge2

With Trump winning against Xi (China) on the trade and economic front; and given the wedge Trump has put between Xi and Kim (DPRK); Beijing needs alternate regional excuse for their militaristic safety-net. They need a regional conflict to draw in the West.... Hence, Hong Kong.

2.) China has no cultural or political space between peace and war; they are a historic nation based on two points of polarity. They see peace and war as coexisting with each other.

3.) Chinese engagement stems from a belief that opposite or contrary forces may actually be complementary, interconnected, and interdependent in the natural world, and they may give rise to each other as they interrelate to one another. However, it must benefit China.

4.) Peace or war. Win or lose. Yin and Yang. Culturally there is no middle position in dealings with China; they are not constitutionally capable of understanding or valuing the western philosophy of mutual benefit where concession of terms gains a larger outcome.

5.) If it does not benefit China, it is not done. The outlook is simply, a polarity of peace or war. In politics or economics the same perspective is true. It is a zero-sum outlook.

6.) Trump, Lighthizer and Ross are sending a very deliberate message. If you crawled into bed with the Dragon, don’t look for us to help make your bed more comfy… deal with it. mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id…

7.) As Wall Street and the multinational corporate community see that Trump is not going to assist anyone, even an American company who made a previously bad decision to invest in China, that awareness becomes a part of the corporate risk management equation.

8.) Again, more pressure to exit the risk matrix that is now Beijing. Meanwhile President Trump strategically engages with Tiawan and offers $2 billion in weapons to the arch nemesis of Beijing. reuters.com/article/us-usa…

9.) Now, many pundits -vested in selling Wall Street positions- immediately begin to stoke fears about this economic confrontation leading to a military war with China, but that is nonsense. Not part of Trump's intent.

10.) So long as President Trump continues hitting China on purely economic issues; and there’s every reason to believe he will; Panda can only hit back using economic tools it controls. The U.S. has far more economic leverage than China in this dynamic.

11.) But again: China has no cultural or political space between peace and war; they are a historic nation based on two points of polarity. They see peace and war as coexisting with each other; complementary to each-other; to be used when needed to defend their interests.

12.) The only way China would be able to deploy it’s military, as a cloaked weapon to assist the economic war, would be if hostile U.S. military action toward an actual Chinese geographic interest was part of the equation. That dynamic did not exist.

13.) [Note: this potential need to deploy military as a mechanism against Western economic confrontation was always the reason for China retaining manipulative control of North Korea as a proxy province.]

14.) With President Trump openly engaging with Kim Jong Un, he has driven a wedge between Beijing and Pyongyang. President Trump has diminished the ability of Chinese Chairman Xi to deploy North Korean Chairman Kim against the United States.

15.) China needs a regional conflict to regain position for its military. The only way China would be able to justify deployment it’s military, as a cloaked weapon to assist the economic war, would be hostile Western action toward an actual Chinese geographic interest.

16.) Hence, Hong Kong comes into play as part of the Chinese geopolitical strategy.

reuters.com/article/us-hon…

17.) /END