Thread by @davidfickling

I really don't get why we all talk about the prospects of America exporting pork to China as if one of the biggest livestock-additive scandals of the past decade didn't exist:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @bopinion

@bopinion Quick potted history of this: There's a medicine called ractopamine that American pig farmers add to animal feed in the weeks leading up to slaughter.

It causes the pig to bulk up and add lean meat, which means better profits for the farmers.

@bopinion But there's a controversy about ractopamine's effect on the health of people eating the pork. China, the EU and Russia say it can have harmful side-effects, and so ban ractopamine-raised pork. The U.S., Japan, Brazil say it's fine.

@bopinion There's always a question mark over food-safety bans like this about whether they're about covert protectionism or legitimate concerns.

I don't think you need to have a strong view of that to see that there's a genuine issue with ractopamine in China.

@bopinion It was first banned as part of one of the biggest product-safety scandals of the past decade, the "lean meat powder" scandal. Nearly 1,000 people were arrested in 2011 over meat tainted with clenbuterol, a related additive: chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-…

@bopinion There were further arrests relating specifically to ractopamine, which was banned in 2011: europe.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-04/…

In the subsequent five years, the U.S. share of China's pork imports went from 51% to 13%:

@bopinion China notified the U.S. in 2013 that it was going to require ractopamine-free certification on imports.

Within two months the parent of WH Group, the world's biggest pork producer, made a $4.7bn bid for Smithfield, the biggest US pork producer, which was reducing ractopamine.

@bopinion They've also banned Canadian meat just last month after ractopamine was found in imported pork tongue, and Russia did the same to Brazil in 2017.

@bopinion Ractopamine is still pretty dominant in the US pork industry because it lowers production costs. About 40% of abattoirs by slaughter capacity haven't even bothered to set themselves up so they can certify a ractopamine-free supply chain.

@bopinion Canada doesn't ban ractopamine but is entirely r-free because it's heavily dependent on exports. The U.S. pork industry is 80% for domestic consumption, so continues to use it.

@bopinion The point of all this is that, though China's trade-war tariffs of 62% on U.S. pork are eye-wateringly high, removing them won't much move the needle on pork imports, despite China culling 1/5 of its herd to stop African swine fever.

@bopinion Europe and Canada, with their r-free supply chains, are likely to be the winners (Russia too, although as the vector for swine fever entering China it may have issues): bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

@bopinion Some U.S. meat will still get through. The USDA has a Never Fed Beta Agonists program which in theory should certify U.S. pork for customs purposes. ams.usda.gov/services/impor… But there's less paperwork in just buying from r-banning countries, so it's an uphill struggle.

@bopinion One final point. I'm still baffled why "lean meat powder" was a thing in China. Isn't the whole point of hong shao rou that you need a hunk of fat on it as thick as your thumb? (ends)