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I think this is right about Corbyn's collapsing appeal, but omits a crucial point: that the Conservative Party is about to ride into the full nuclear blast of the Brexit decision-point. If/when it breaks apart, Corbyn is still the most likely beneficiary. thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen…
If the government collapses before an election, Corbyn leads the only other party large enough to form a government. His hold on the membership remains absolute - perhaps more than ever, as Corbynsceptics walk away. There's no challenge coming from Tom Watson or the PLP.
Even at an election, I don't see the Lib Dems doing to Labour what the SNP did in Scotland. The SNP ran the Scottish govt, had high-profile leaders & a national campaigning network. The LDs have 12 MPs & their best-known figure is retiring. That's a lot of ground to make up.
I agree with @DAaronovitch that the Polyjuice Potion has worn off: the illusions that once shrouded Corbyn have worn off among the wider public. But so long as he leads the Labour Party, he's the most likely beneficiary of a Tory collapse. And he's leader for as long as he wants.
One final point: arguments like these rely on some kind of "deus ex machina": that "the men in grey suits" (in this case, John McDonnell) will persuade Corbyn to step down voluntarily. If he wouldn't do this in 2016, when things looked equally bad, why now, with No 10 in sight?
