Thread by @herszenhorn

Smart thread here by @rdanielkelemen. Few caveats from perch w/ up-close view: (a) those saying France + V4 took down @ManfredWeber I think are conflating Weber as Spitzenkandidat & Weber for Parliament president (per Osaka deal), i.e. France killed Spitz; V4 killed Osaka plan 1/

https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1146809381142564864

(b) Weber past relation w/ Orban was liability but not as big liability as weak candidacy overall i.e: perception he lacked gravitas (when critics cited no exec experience often they meant he didn't project exec authority); weak debate performances (Timmermans commanded stage) 2/

& post-elex tactical errors i.e. staying group leader instead of letting others broker for him; clinging to dead bid for @EU_Commission prez instead recognizing path blocked by math in Parliament. (c) see reax in DE for why Merkel backed Osaka but shed no tear when it failed 3/

(d) most salient point is @EPP ultimately chose Commission presidency over Spitzenkandidat process (e) corollary: EUCO process was negative one i.e. not search for a great European Commission president but for nominee to give @EPP its prize who few/no member states wd reject 4/

(e) biggest story may be Parliament. Unlike US Congress where all see themselves as co-equal branch govt, EU Parliament suffered brutal institutional humiliation w/ Council dictating even which party wd take EP's own presidency. Parliament *is* the backroom deal it whines of 5/

Council has no authority to dictate EP prez: @guyverhofstadt @MaireadMcGMEP @Antonio_Tajani et al could have competed w/ @SkaKelle @ZahradilJan & @DavidSassoli in genuine contest. Instead was more blatant stitch-up than EUCO. EUCO at least adhered to its duties under Treaty 6/

(f) Takeaway: consolidation of Franco-German power in context of Brexit & rising populism = scared/defensive EU establishment retreating to core Old Europe. Note exclusion Eastern Europe/Nordics. Spain Belgium & Italy can have 2d tier jobs. Berlin/Paris are calling the shots. Fin