1/9: The debate on #Brexit isn’t moving forward. At best it’s going round in circles. Or regressing to the pre Chequers era. The public positions of both Johnson & Hunt on renegotiation by October are unrealistic & they must know it. A thread of thoughts on this.
2/9: Conventional wisdom now says no deal is growing more likely. I disagree. We’ve had a good look at no deal and decided not to go there. It’s a wasting political bogeyman... unless Parliament screws up badly, which it may, or the EU force the issue, which I still doubt.
3/9: Johnson will try smoke & mirrors on the backstop & tweaks on the future relationship to squeak a revised deal through in October. He has a chance, but I doubt it will work. If it doesn’t, another A50 extension is likely, linked to either an election or 2nd referendum.
4/9: As Conservatives rally to the siren call of a “do or die” #Brexit Labour will move toward Remain. Heading for an election, the two main parties have a common interest in squeezing others out by taking clear opposing positions on the big issue.
5/9: The chances of an eventual no #Brexit are rising. Because it is daily more obvious that Brexit is impossible to deliver in a way that does not inflict great, unnecessary harm. Most politicians know this, but are reluctant to say it and are playing for time.
6/9: Sadly we’ve no good options. Literally the only way to stop years’ more #Brexit debilitation is a democratic choice to remain. But even then, “we’re staying because after 3 years trying we didn’t manage to leave” isn’t a good look.. just the least bad outcome.
7/9: If a withdrawal deal was approved we would face a phase 2 negotiation of immense complexity over several years. It would need a different, more inclusive negotiating style. I think Civil servants understand this, but I’m not yet sure politicians do.
8/9: The phase 2 work would require a sustained cross government effort. Driven from the centre & involving many departments. Collective political leadership, systematic coordination, broad teams, involving Devolved Administrations & engaging business & civil society.
9/9: If, against my expectation, there was a no deal #Brexit, that would be far worse. We would plunge into a damage limitation crisis and spend years, with no transition, trying to salvage what we could from the wreckage before we could shape the future.
