1/12: A thread on geopolitical & economic change 30 years after the Cold War ended. The parts are moving fast in a period of transition and rupture. The future will not be simply an amended version of the past.
2/12: The geopolitical 21st century began in the 1999 Seattle WTO protest. In 2001 China joining the WTO was strategically more significant than 9/11. The 2008 financial crisis was the defining & formative event. More contours emerged in 2016 with Trump & Brexit.
3/12: Deep structural change is happening. Chinese political & economic power is pushing up against a bristling US. Demographic growth in India & Africa will alter the world. Europe is in relative decline & Russia has become an opportunist disruptor. Authoritarianism is rising.
4/12: Economic globalisation continues, with huge benefits - but many in developed economies no longer feel they share them. Technology is changing how we trade, work & live - creating uncertainty about jobs & competitiveness. The climate impact is urgent.
5/12: All this is polarising politics in rich democracies: no longer a steady centre left/centre right pendulum. The pro-market consensus is gone as people look to govt for protection. Insurgent movements offer varieties of populism & nationalism. Climate mobilises the young.
6/12: The system for international relations is weakened. Global bodies are underperforming & unrepresentative. “Western” democracies disagree more & no longer call the shots. Structures designed for the 20th century, like EU or NATO, are strained by diverging member interests.
7/12: In international economic policy, multilateral liberalisation has hit a wall of scepticism & national protectionism. Trade rules & regulation struggle to keep pace with new challenges & behaviours driven by technology. New models are needed.
8/12: The most striking change is in America. This isn’t about one man. Trump reflects & magnifies a shift in priorities: from Europe to Asia; from international leadership to national interest. If he lost next year the US would not return to what it was.
9/12: America’s relationship with China is clearly the central geostrategic question. Economic & political confrontation is inevitable but conflict is not. The challenge for others is how to gain leverage & build security in the new bipolar era.
10/12: The EU is divided on many issues & lacks shared strategic purpose. Its interest is to work with the US for a new relationship with China, but transatlantic antagonism hinders this & Trump seems uninterested.
11/12: In the UK Brexit will dominate national life for years. It’s a bad idea at a bad time & will reduce Britain’s ability to influence events & exercise leverage with the US, China & EU. The main geostrategic consequence will be a weaker EU.
12/12: Much is at stake. Our democracies, rooted in law-based capitalism, are the best societies in human history. We need to be positive, innovative & united in championing our achievements & values - & we need leaders who understand what they are.
