1/9: While Conservatives choose our new PM (a process clearly less democratic than a 2nd referendum) #Brexit still looms over us. Whatever they claim, will Johnson or Hunt be able to deliver an outcome? Changing the leader does not change the facts. Here’s a thread of 9 on this.
2/9: PM Johnson or PM Hunt will face the same problems as PM May. EU negotiators will still refuse significantly to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement. The Commons, in which the PM will have no solid majority, will still oppose both the current deal and no deal.
3/9: Both candidates say they can renegotiate the backstop & get a “better deal”. But how? EU leaders have no faith in alternative British ideas for the Irish border & will not just fudge it. They are ready to discuss future UK/EU relations, but UK doesn’t know what it wants.
4/9: Most EU leaders have little interest in helping Johnson. They don’t trust him. And they don’t believe he can force a no deal #Brexit through Parliament. On the other hand they will not want to be dealing with him or Farage on the Brussels scene for long.
5/9: If, as is likely, the “renegotiation strategy” fails, the new PM will have to work out how to handle Parliament. No deal may be the default option at the end of October, but if most MPs want to prevent it they will, aided by Speaker Bercow. (Hunt will agree.)
6/9: Without a significantly better deal to offer in autumn, to achieve a #Brexit result the new PM will need either to change the Parliamentary arithmetic or to win a new public mandate. There are two ways of doing this: an election or a second referendum.
7/9: If he was riding high Johnson might just think an election in autumn winnable (Hunt does not). But fending off both the Brexit Party and Lib Dems would be hard. The result might well be a Labour led government under Corbyn - and political oblivion for Johnson.
8/9: But equally a second referendum carries other huge risks for Johnson or Hunt: bitter political division, an inconclusive result or alienation of pro #Brexit Conservatives. Never mind the problem of what question to ask.
9/9: Conclusion: whichever way you slice it #Brexit remains a huge mess. It looks impossible for a new PM to resolve it before the October deadline. A further extension of Article 50 is the most likely outcome - provided the EU agree. And on and on..
