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Having met some key officials Brussels, a thread on how the EU views the imminent arrival of a BJ government. The changes in top EU personnel will not make much difference, as Brexit policy will continue to be driven mainly by FRA, GER and a few other capitals. @CER_EU /1
Officials expect BJ to ask for the unattainable. Barclay was recently in BXL, saying UK would want to keep just parts of withdrawal agreement, that talks on trade deal shd go in parallel with work on new WA, and that effforts on 'alternative arrangements' should be stepped up. /2
This did not go down well. EU won't agree to change substance of WA, eg a time limit on backstop. Change would require a new mandate from European Council, which won't happen, since that could create divisions among 27. Nor will EU agree to do trade deal before WA adopted. /3
Johnsonites are wrong to think EU will blink because it is scared of no deal. It is less fearful of ND than in spring - laws are in place, border posts built, vets hired. Anyway EU thinks ND would not last for long - after a period of chaos there would have to be talks on deal./4
Some officials expect BJ to revive the idea he has floated during his campaign, of withholding £ from EU. But EU not too worried about that, since UK govt lawyers accept much of the £ is owed. "If they don't pay up we won't talk about anything" says one official. /5
What could EU offer BJ? A new political declaration on the future rel, eg spelling out a Canada-style FTA. But it is sceptical that would pass Parliament. Also Canada means no single mkt or customs union, so would necessitate the Irish backstop. /6
The EU could embellish/expand commitments it made in the joint interpretive instrument of March, designed to reassure the UK that the EU did not want the backstop to be permanent. For example EU could agree to timetable for examining whether parts of backstop needed to stay. /7
As for changing the WA itself, EU would be willing to offer a longer transition. Then BJ could claim backstop would not be needed, UK would have say 5 years to negotiate FTA and fix Irish border issues. But would an extended period of 'vassalage' pass Parliament? /8
The other change the EU would accept would be a N Ireland-only backstop - as the EU initially proposed. If only N IRE in EU's customs union, Great Britain would be free to do trade deals with others. But there would then be customs controls across Irish Sea - anathema to DUP. /9
If UK asks to extend Art 50, would EU agree? Last April Macron was isolated in trying to block a long extension. In October he would probably have more support for being tough on UK - it would need to hold an election or referendum to be sure of a long extension. /10
Yet some senior officials think EU will be very keen not to be blamed for pushing out the Brits, and that the German line that the British should be given more time will prevail. /11
If phase two - talks on the future rel - finally start, how will the EU organise itself? Commission will create something similar to Task Force 50 - a tough unit to co-ordinate the process, ensure EU unity, and keep the member-states and MEPs on board with the strategy. /ENDS
