Thread by @msbellows

I'm feeling Socratic. Tiny thread:

"We Demand Impeachment Hearings!":
What do you think the Mueller hearings were?

"But Those Were Boring + Ineffective At Capturing The Public Imagination!"
Correct. Just like formal impeachment hearings would be at this point, which is why Pelosi's not holding them yet.
1/

"But Calling It Impeachment Makes It Easier To Get Documents!"
Not as much as you think. That mainly applies to grand jury materials (and it's just DC Circuit precedent; this Trump-friendly SCOTUS could make grand jury materials unavailable to Congress even in impeachment)...
2/

Meanwhile, Congress keeps winning its lawsuits to get taxes, more Mueller materials, etc.
3/

"But we need to do SOMETHING, or we won't energize the base!"
Agreed. But WHEN do we want to energize the base -- now or in Nov. 2020? And don't forget the "boring" factor above: ...
4/

If this lawless WH won't produce docs or wits even in impeachment hearings, forcing Ds to go to court either way, isn't it wiser to do it BEFORE announcing "IMPEACHMENT!" instead of allowing delays to dissipate all the energy + attention that will come from that announcement?
5/

"You talk about the election and timing and appearances. But impeachment is a matter of principle, not politics!"
What silly person told you that? Of COURSE impeachment is about politics! In Federalist 65, Hamilton himself said so:
6/

Hamilton: "[Impeachment proceedings] are of a nature which may with peculiar propriety be denominated POLITICAL, as they relate chiefly to injuries done immediately to the society itself. ...
7/

"... The prosecution of them, for this reason, will seldom fail to agitate the passions of the whole community, and to divide it into parties more or less friendly or inimical to the accused."

Again: that's Alexander Hamilton, who knew his stuff. Impeachment = politics.
8/

"But if impeachment = politics we lose, because the GOP Senate won't convict."

Ah, NOW we're getting somewhere! Two responses. First: the Senate won't convict based on what we know NOW. But Mueller didn't investigate his finances + didn't disclose his counter-intel findings.
9/

Congress is THIS CLOSE to winning its lawsuits to see both. What if impeachment, when it finally comes, is based on outright tax fraud? Russian money laundering? Foreign bribes? Trump being blackmailed by foreign agents? The pee tape? ...
10/

Pelosi's strategy of collecting the "strongest possible hand" before impeaching means she MIGHT be able to impeach for crimes that even Senate Rs can't swallow. It's worth exploring (which is why she's exploring it).
11/

Second: the goal here isn't "impeachment" per se. The goal is "getting rid of Trump and his enablers, so people can be safe and America can resume its moral heading." Nixon's impeachment wasn't "unsuccessful" just bec. he stepped down before the Senate trial even began.
12/

"OK, but how does DELAYING impeachment help, if your real goal is to get rid of Trump and his enablers as soon as possible?"

In two ways. First, as noted above, the current subpoenas + lawsuits may reveal crimes even Rs will impeach for. If so: problem solved! ...
13/

But admittedly that's a long shot. This Senate probably will acquit Trump even if video surfaces of him on Epstein's island snorting caviar off Deripaska's pubescent granddaughter's tummy as Ivanka + Putin bump uglies in the background on a burning American flag. So: plan B?
14/

Plan B: if the Senate's unlikely to convict, then "impeachment" must be constructed to serve a second purpose as well: it must maximize the chances of Trump losing reelection AND (ideally) Dems winning the Senate (while retaining the House). Again: a POLITICAL solution.
/15

Or, stated in the negative: if impeachment is unlikely to succeed in the Senate, then if we impeach anyway, we MUST NOT do so in a way that accidentally IMPROVES Trump's chances of re-election or the GOP's position in Congress. That would be disastrous malpractice.
16/

And that's the problem with the "stop playing politics! just impeach now on principle!" argument:

It risks IMPROVING Trump's chances of re-election and the GOP's position in Congress.

We have to be more strategic than that.
17/

"Wait, how could impeachment HELP the GOP?"

Lots of ways! First, imagine an immediate impeachment that goes all the way through a Senate trial and results in Trump's acquittal. Trump's 2020 campaign would be "See? It WAS a hoax!" – and many low-info voters would believe him.
18/

It would be incredibly hard for Dems to run on Trump's corruption and Russia ties if the trial was over and Trump had won. WE would know it would be just another sign of GOP corruption, but your great-aunt wouldn't, and she's the swing vote.
19/

Next, remember the pundits yawning an hour into the Mueller hearings? Imagine Pelosi announcing "IMPEACHMENT!" followed by months of sporadic hearings interrupted by witnesses refusing to testify, detours to the courts, no momentum or narrative to keep the public attention.
20/

It sucks to say this, but McLuhan was right: bad TV makes bad politics. Boring, extended impeachment hearings would make DEMOCRATS look boring. This process needs to culminate in gripping, densely narrative, must-see TV. Pelosi's doing the necessary preproduction work.
21/

Another way impeachment done wrong could hurt the Dems: some truly damning evidence comes to light, and impeachment SUCCEEDS -- but succeeds in, say, late 2019 or early 2020? Trump is gone (yay!), but a sexist, racist, anti-science Evangelical who SEEMS sane now is president.
22/

"But bad as he is, Pence still would be better than Trump!"

Agreed -- but think big picture. If early impeachment leads to Trump's early departure, the GOP has time to conduct a primary and run a seeming moderate. Dems no longer can "run against Trump." ...
23/

Voters will be asked to choose between a seeming moderate and a "socialist" (because all Democrats are socialists, according to that Facebook story my great-aunt sent me). And no Congressional Rs have been forced to go on record supporting Russia over the US.
24/

It's a toss-up whether Republicans keep the White House, and they definitely will keep the Senate.
25/

So the question isn't, is Pence better than Trump?

The Q is, what's better, one more year of Trump followed by Democratic control of both the WH and both houses of Congress, or FIVE more years of GOP control of the WH and Senate?

Do you think RBG will last five more years?
26/

"But I want to impeach NOW as a matter of PRINCIPLE, even if it can't succeed!"

Oh, my lovely, idealistic friend, check your PRIVILEGE! People fearing deportation, facing catastrophic pregnancies, suffering illness don't want to "send a message." They want to be SAFE.
27/

And no one will be safe while the GOP is in power. No one. The goal isn't to send a message. The goal isn't even to impeach. The goal is to SUCCEED. The goal is to excise this cancer – not just the obvious tumor, but all its metastases, in Congress + statehouses + the courts.
28/

And the way to succeed is the way Pelosi is pursuing: assert Congress's right to conduct oversight in the courts. Force the administration to produce witnesses and documents. Gather all the evidence. Find out everything Trump has done. Conduct discovery. Build the case.
29/

In short: Load the gun, THEN pull the trigger.

And "pulling the trigger" means having the ducks in a row, THEN conducting short, powerful, narratively compelling hearings hammering Trump with Russia, tax fraud, money laundering, personal impropriety, obstruction of justice:
30/

BANG! BANG! BANG! One or two weeks at most of must-see TV, followed by an overwhelming vote to impeach, with voters looking at the Republicans who vote "no" and thinking: didn't you HEAR this stuff? Weren't you WATCHING? How can you vote NO?

And Trump wigging out on Twitter.
31/

And all of this timed (in my perfect world, while early voting's underway) so that, regardless of the Senate outcome, voters FINALLY understand what we've been screaming about, FINALLY are educated about stuff we Twitter junkies have known for years, and vote the rascals out.
32/

Followed by Democratic control of the White House and Congress, passage of universal healthcare, Ruth Bader Ginsburg's long deserved retirement (and her replacement by, what the hell, @AOC), and a taco truck on every corner.

THAT'S the Dem strategy. It's a good one.
33/

@AOC "OK, you're right. I see now that Pelosi's actually brilliant, savvy, fierce, and correct."

Thanks. I'm glad we had this talk.
34/34

@AOC "We’re crossing a threshold with this filing, and we’re now officially entering into an examination of whether or not to recommend the articles of impeachment," said Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Tex.)."

https://twitter.com/TimOBrien/status/1154826687940444160

@AOC More on this story, which is a BIG FUCKING DEAL. See tweet #2 above.

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1154826836435767297

Great thread with important insights by @Teri_Kanefield and @renato_mariotti:

https://twitter.com/Teri_Kanefield/status/1154829693519978501

P.S.:

https://twitter.com/EricBoehlert/status/1155894810231869442

@Teri_Kanefield @renato_mariotti P.S.: @BeschlossDC gets it.

https://twitter.com/StevenBeschloss/status/1155911421139439616