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@AukeHoekstra recent debunk of Fraunhofer's automotive lifecycle assessment motivated me to look deeper into economics of hydrogen. A thread 1/
My calculations are based on @IEA Future of Hydrogen report which is an excellent piece of work and I encourage everyone interested in hydrogen to have a look into it. TL;DR despite cheap electricity, H2 today uncompetitive with SMR. But expect a turning point in 2030s. 2/ 
Global average hides regional differences though. In Northern Europe, wind and solar + abated gas will probably encourage uptake of electric heating in lieu of hydrogen. German taxpayers might be in for Energiewende 2.0 if the gov. goes through with intentions to bet on H2. 3/
Low gas prices in the US give me very little hope for H2 economy there. California is an exception, but at these levelised prices I struggle to see any significant FCEV market there even with very favourable policies. 4/
Finally, China. At ~55$/MWh LCOE, hydrogen undercuts gas and nuclear. This is where the H2 revolution will happen. No wonder over the past 3 years China has been steadily increasing H2 R&D spending. Expect main use to be hard to electrify sectors - seasonal storage and heating 5/
