, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Excellent threat as ever by the former chief lawyer of the #EU Council. I'd add a couple of things below:
What is underestimated both by Remainers and on the continent: the importance of Brexit actually happening. At this stage a no-deal would trigger that irreversible event. So even as coming back to the table (maybe days or weeks after) wld be painful, the deed will have been done
Achieving that irreversible Brexit is hugely important for Brexiters, and the accompanying costs would be seen as acceptable (by them) as a way out of the present stalemate.
So once that worst-case scenario takes place, the likely outcome is a huge market turmoil and a recession in several countries. The talks will commence quickly, but how will the backtop fare when the WA is dead, fallout is raging and needs to be stopped immediately?
Ireland & several other states will likely tap emergency funding/measures. And if UK withholds the 30-odd-bn Brexit bill the EU will face a huge funding gap. Meaning, for instance, that Germany's budget would blow up right as the economy is nosediving. This is a serious threat.
All this provided there is a functional government in the UK being able to steer through such crisis, which is of course not a given. But in any event, it's a lose-lose situation that will hugely test both sides, no matter that the EU is vastly stronger in this fight.
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