Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Under Art. 1, Sec. 6 of the U.S. Constitution, the votes of political pundits count 500 times more than the votes of laypersons, so this could turn out to be a big problem for Biden.
If you're a pundit and can't figure out why real, actual people like Biden, you're not good at your job. He talks about the middle class a lot, he talks about Trump a lot, he represents the continuation of the very popular (among Ds) President Obama, and people think he can win.
Oh, and by the way: Biden's policy positions are pretty close to those of the average Democratic likely voter, if you look at polls and so forth.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Nate Silver
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NateSilver538 see all

Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Voters care about Joe Biden's age. They don't care about his gaffes. 53eig.ht/33L4mBk
^^^ So maybe the other candidates should be more explicit about making age an issue, as Swalwell was in the first debate.
We're at the point where Biden looks a liiiittle bit Trump-like in his ability to weather minor storms with his polling numbers intact. Maybe that won't hold up or maybe another candidate will surpass him even if he holds at ~30%. But other D's should consider a change of course.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
For people interested in Nov. 2020: The rule is look at macro indicators early (it's *very* early now) and micro indicators (i.e. state by state polls) late. Right now, a relatively minor increase in the risk of recession is a lot more material than a new poll in WI or whatever.
tbh I think people recall 538's highly detailed analysis of individual polls or the Electoral College math and sort of mimic the style, but they forget that there's a fairly particular time and place when we do it: Within a few months of the election and *not* a ton before that.
Doesn't mean you can't indulge in a little micro once in a while this far out from the election, it's fun to click on those Electoral College maps. But from a forecasting accuracy standpoint your view at this point should be 40% macro, 10% micro, 50% "we don't know anything yet".
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's probably worth asking how much Trump is lowering his re-election chances with this trade war stuff. Off-hand, I'd guess it's on the order of 5-10 percentage points, which, while not enormous, is a bigger impact than the large majority of events political reporters cover.
Looking forward to Nov. 4 '20 when the CW is that Elizabeth Warren rode to the White House on the basis of a populist surge and I'm all "#Ackshawlly, she won because Trump's populist trade war lowered industrial production in the Midwest, causing him to narrowly lose Wisconsin."
FWIW, I'm too lazy to look up what our model says about this so this might be slightly off, but my assumption is that lowering GDP growth by 1 percentage point would reduce Trump's re-election chances by something like 10 to 15 percentage points.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Sn❄w🐶Champ🏂ion🗻
@SnowdogChampion
@FreeWikiPress @GretaThunberg Viv, pls read this.. I don't want to take away your enthusiasm but.. it'all part of #Agenda21.. including Greta
@FreeWikiPress @GretaThunberg Read here, Viv & do read the 1999 report by our sleepy @Europarl_EN link attached

@wikileaks @khrafnsson @johnpilger @RossCameron4 @Nigel_Farage @ukipmeps @RobbingHoodUK @vaclavklaus proud to be #climatesceptic
@FreeWikiPress @GretaThunberg @Europarl_EN @wikileaks @khrafnsson @johnpilger @RossCameron4 @Nigel_Farage @ukipmeps @RobbingHoodUK @vaclavklaus Watch this @blackvaultcom video & may I add.. it's an old video.. it got much.. much further... #HAARP went Orbital
Read 31 tweets
Profile picture
Friend or Foe?
@starknightz
1. #News ~ China’s President Xi in Russia: President Trump Is My “Friend”
– China, US Too Intertwined to Break Up Over Trade War thegatewaypundit.com/2019/06/chinas…

#Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #WWG1WGA
2. #News ~ Far-Left Vice News Celebrates Prepubescent Boys Dressed in Drag, “Next Generation of Drag Queens” (VIDEO) thegatewaypundit.com/2019/06/far-le…

#Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #WWG1WGA #ChildSexAbuse
3. #News ~ Protesters Who Dumped Glitter-Lube Concoction On Police Receive Jail Sentences thegatewaypundit.com/2019/06/protes…

#Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #WWG1WGA
Read 96 tweets
Profile picture
Taiwo_Ajakaye
@dmightyangel
@thecableng @DSamsonItodo @ReadyToRunNG @GRVlagos @channelstv @EUinNigeria Good morning Sir @DSamsonItodo
I read your article titled Shaping the narrative of Nigeria’s 2019 elections with big data, a 14 paragraph article that's mainly focused on #NigeriaDecides2019
In my view, some issues raised are simply #IllogicalLogics

@thecableng @DSamsonItodo @ReadyToRunNG @GRVlagos @channelstv @EUinNigeria The main take away of the article for me is that it shows that Nigerians are more active in the decisions that affect their lives more than ever before.
However, I saw some #IllogicalLogics in your opinion and I just want Omo Ibadan to help me define the #IllogicalLogics🤣🤣🤣🤣
@thecableng @DSamsonItodo @ReadyToRunNG @GRVlagos @channelstv @EUinNigeria The advantage of getting divers opinions on the same subject is already established in our constitution Section 39(1) of the 1999 Constitution that "Every person shall be entitled to freedom of expression, including freedom to hold opinions...Like I said, this is my own opinion!
Read 47 tweets
Profile picture
True Republics
@TrueRepublics
“Operation Torch California is a very real ongoing black operation being conducted by the U.S. Intelligence Community in collusion with Operation Gladio. These false flag terrorist attacks are first &... 
#SaturdayMorning
#ParadiseStrong
foremost a highly sophisticated psyop. They have many goals.  And they will continue until California has been completely subjugated by the globalists.  
#paradisefire
#Paradise

bit.ly/2S4Euu0
When I first learned about #DEW and how it works. The "wild fires" in California was obvious. I highly recommend everyone to watch this clip on "Lockheed Martin's Directed Energy: Speed of Light Defense"
#ParadiseFire
#ParadiseStrong
#SaturdayMorning

bit.ly/2BwuaF7
Read 65 tweets
Profile picture
True Republics
@TrueRepublics
@HenPsych
@JonnyBones
@charlie_dover
@ryfii
@Kendahl_TWC
@julian87m
@FrankyBoi_12
@TannerFeasel
@d_ast777
@JasonWardNY
@KyleLowder22
@VanessaHudgens
@nursechikdiva12
"Excuse me everyone for tagging you.  I am reaching out to many as possible in re: to "wildfires in California.
The recent "wildfires" in Paradise, California 1000's of people died and 30,000 + homes destroyed. What most people don't know the "wildfires" are man-made. I will provide clips, links of evidence, what we're up against and a solution. The mainstream media has been downplaying...
...on the "wildfires" to keep us all ignorant for not knowing the truth.  This is a 4  part thread." 
#ChristmasEve
#Paradisefire
#SantaRosa
Read 99 tweets
Profile picture
sᴛᴀʀᴛᴜᴘ ᴅᴀᴇᴍᴏɴ
@startupdaemon
1) There’s a lot of BS about @nntaleb’s Black Swan, antifragility & skin in da game. Let’s take the gloves off and get into trouble.
2) When the Swan flew out, it was immediately butchered by imbeciles not understanding that you can’t predict the unpredictable.

That is the point – and an IQ filter NNT himself proly did not expect.
3) In any complex domain – life! – the Blackest Swan is always skulking around the corner. You know it’s coming, but you don’t know what where when. You can't tame what you've never even conceived of.

Can you get it?
Read 46 tweets

Trending hashtags

#AR04 #History #Coal #BoyCott #SyriaStrikes #WashingtonDC #Biden #EnemyOfThePeople #constitution #TrumpTariffs #TuesdayMorning #managers #DEW #healthcare #VoteThemOut #biden #soybean #history #arpx #GiletsJaunes #DonTheCon #SundayMorning #Constitution #SunshinePress #Orwell
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!