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After a grinding year, markets bottomed out on 20th Dec 2011. On that day, just 11% of stocks were trading above their 200 day EMA. Today, we are at 15.70%
Draw-down of Stocks from their All time Highs as on that day (n = 1467 for 2011 vs 1616 for 2019)
The difference can be seen at both ends. While in 2011, just 3.4% of stocks had a draw-down less than 20%, today is 6.75%. On the other end, 75% of stocks at both times saw draw-down of 50% or more
In 2011, Nifty 50 broke below its Weekly 200 EMA while today that is still far away (9906 as of today's close). On the other hand, we have seen deeper cuts in both Mid and Small cap Indics
While markets rebounded from their lows of 2011, it was not until mid 2014 that the 2010 high was breached. Before that, stocks became even cheaper by 2013
I am coming to believe that a final capitulation is nearing. Will that take Nifty 50 below 10K is an unknown. But history suggests that any pull back will lead to a time based correction than back to normalcy.
Stocks with least amount of draw-down.
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