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I am not an automotive industry expert so not confident on what is technically doable or not as a contingency plan for a crash out Brexit, but I am pretty good on how Japanese companies think, so this is my sense of what is planned 1/
Japanese companies are very risk averse, by which I mean they want to minimise the risk to as close to zero as possible. So rather than work out how to deal with border disruption, I reckon they will just shift production away from UK to 🇪🇺 or 🇯🇵 immediately. 2/
Japanese companies are also very collaborative, so they will have been discussing back up plans with the whole supply chain and logistics companies for months, years even. 3/
As the consequences of a crash out Brexit will likely take years to piece back together with negotiations, it's not a question of hunkering down for a few months. I predict Japanese companies will just shut down UK production permanently, immediately, + supply UK with exports. 4/
Up to October 31 they keep on with producing the models they have committed to + invested in the UK for, in the hope that there is a smooth transition period to 2021, preferably 2023. When I think they will shut down UK production anyway. 5/
The only way this won't happen is if the UK stays in the Single Market and looks like a good place to develop and produce electric vehicles for the 🇪🇺 again. But investment needs to be happening now, and is instead at a low in the UK, buoyant in Eastern Europe. 6/
There is a Japanese saying, do everything humanly possible today + wait for heaven to decide tomorrow. I think they are done with warnings, just preparing alternative production + supply to cut 🇬🇧 out entirely immediately if it's a crash out Brexit, by 2021-3 if it's hard. 7/
Iron may have entered the Japanese automotive industry soul with regard to the UK. The eerie silence from them is telling. They've got other bigger things to worry about with Trump and China. 8/8
