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Pernille Rudlin
@pernilleru
, 8 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
So next thread: Previous threads showed how 3 Japanese car brands, 3 big 🇯🇵automotive suppliers with production in UK all have alternative production sites in EU or Japan for a crash out or hard Brexit. Maybe onshoring supply to UK is an option, but no sign this is happening 1/
Other big suppliers: Toyoda Gosei (Toyota affiliate), 800 employees in UK, manufactures automotive parts in Rotherham + Wales - latter supplying Honda, also Nissan, JLR, BMW. Had government grants, was growing in 2015 2/ walesonline.co.uk/business/busin…
Since 2015, Toyoda Gosei employees in the Czech Republic more than doubled, increased by 1/3 in Germany + fell 29% in UK. Plan to 2025 is to improve profitability in Europe 2017-21, review division of roles between UK, Germany + Czech Rep, optimize production + cost structure. 3/
Europe "has been a challenging market for us" Most recent Toyoda Gosei quarterly results show turnover down 7% in Europe/Africa. loss making. Asia turnover and profit up. 4/
G-TEKT has 4 plants in UK, primarily supplying Honda, but also Toyota + JLR. Employment has grown to 860 over past 4 years, with new plant in Gloucester. Only non-UK EU production started 2019 in Slovakia. Just in time. 5/ gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/glouceste…
Kasai has plants in Washington and Merthyr employing around 800. Set up plant in Slovakia in 2017, to be onstream 2019 - another just in time. Honda Swindon closure will impact Merthyr particularly 6/ bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-…
Kasai profit, turnover down in 2018/9, diversifying customer base to Nissan, JLR. It imports parts from EU, Thailand, USA. So Brexit, weak £ are issues, even if produce/sell in UK. 7/ automotivelogistics.media/kasai-uk-looks…
May 2019 Kasai acquired factory in Germany from Roechling. This article says it will be Kasai's first plant in Europe (already seeing UK as having left?!) 8/8 plasteurope.com/news/R_CHLING_…
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More from @pernilleru see all

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Pernille Rudlin
@pernilleru
Thread on Japanese automotive supply chain part 4. Summary of so far - crash out Brexit likely to lead to immediate cutting out of UK/shut down of production, hard Brexit after transition period will lead to closure of plants by 2021/3 because no new models allocated to UK now 1/
Soft Brexit, with frictionless trade after transition period - will still be shrinkage of Japanese car production in UK, as is shift to eastern Europe going on anyway, but with possible compensatory electric vehicle development in UK for EU market. 2/
Next of the large Japanese automotive manufacturers in UK - TS Tech. Makes car seats exclusively for Honda. Employs 740 people in Swindon. @MollyMEP had this to say about a meeting with TS Tech in 2018 3/
Read 13 tweets
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Pernille Rudlin
@pernilleru
I am not an automotive industry expert so not confident on what is technically doable or not as a contingency plan for a crash out Brexit, but I am pretty good on how Japanese companies think, so this is my sense of what is planned 1/
Japanese companies are very risk averse, by which I mean they want to minimise the risk to as close to zero as possible. So rather than work out how to deal with border disruption, I reckon they will just shift production away from UK to 🇪🇺 or 🇯🇵 immediately. 2/
Japanese companies are also very collaborative, so they will have been discussing back up plans with the whole supply chain and logistics companies for months, years even. 3/
Read 8 tweets
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Pernille Rudlin
@pernilleru
Following on from my threads on the past 3 yrs for the 3 biggest Japanese manufacturers in the UK + Brexit - Nissan, Honda & Toyota, here's a thread on the rest of Japanese automotive production businesses in the UK. Many of which are dependent on what Nissan/Honda/Toyota do 1/
As @nigel_driffield put it “It is not a question of what’s here already, it’s a question of what is not going to come here. In the next 12-18 months, Nissan, Honda + Toyota – will decide where they are going to make their new models in 2023-24." 2/ theguardian.com/business/2019/…
Some 70 per cent of the UK automotive industry is made up of smaller companies with ten or fewer staff, says Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders 3/ wired.co.uk/article/uk-car…
Read 12 tweets

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THREAD 👇 13 automotive #Brexit myths – busted

MYTH 1: The automotive industry shouldn’t worry about leaving the EU with #nodeal

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Right #Brexit peeps, what is going on? What happens next?

Short answer is its all pretty fluid, but here's what I think I know after usual chats with both etc (1/thread)
May will ask for extension to June 30, per reports.

Less clear if she will also say UK prepared to 'no deal' on June 30. That might be a key omission to watch, on which more later.

So will the EU agree? /2
Not necessarily. As @adamfleming warned this AM - and later confirmed by @JunckerEU interview - EU may say a short extension is "conditional" on May passive her deal next week (presumed new vote Mon or Tues)

That would be a reason for a short extension/3
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Alan Trench
@devomatters
1/ As some readers may know, I did a lot of academic work on comparative intergovernmental relations, including how federal systems deal with ‘mega-constitutional’ issues like top-level constit reform. #Brexit is a mega-mega constit reform.
2/ Any mega-constit reform only happens effectively if it can be accepted as legitimate, by those unhappy with the outcome as well as those happy about it. That means the process by which it is reached is crucial. This is ‘loser’s consent’.
3/ Each side needs to know what it’s seeking and have broad support for its goals. It has to say what it means, and mean what it says. Clarity and consistency are key to getting a good outcome.
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Stephen Murphy
@SMurphyTV
Irish Deputy PM @simoncoveney, with German Foreign Minister @HeikoMaas, says the “time for wishful thinking is over” to avoid a no-deal #Brexit. “There is no alternative 585-page agreement waiting to be dusted off”
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Coveney says EU can issue "additional clarifications", but cannot reopen the Withdrawal Agreement itself
Read 7 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Labour & #Brexit - thread
Quick analysis of this article by @Peston
It talks about a recent private meeting led by McDonnell and is, hopefully a sign that Labour may engage on fighting hard #brexit

But...it doesn't put Labour in a good light

2) firstly, this comment
This illustrates 2 things:
I) after months of people saying that EU membership doesn't limit Labour plans McDonnell has, only now, when #Brexit is at risk, gotten round to proving this for himself - what on earth has he been doing in the meantime?
3) ii) Labour Leadership launched this Manifesto without first checking if it was compatible with even a soft Brexit, therefore they have clearly been supporting hard #Brexit all this time, under the assumption it was needed for their plans, despite the pain it would cause
Read 9 tweets

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