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🕵🏻♂️ A long delve into what has been going on at the daily XO No Deal planning meetings... first up Rees Mogg presented paper on Tuesday they will mean no brexit legislation pre 31/11 - five Exit bills are on ice - changes to be done by SI dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7… 
XO have agreed that all No Deal planning decisions are to tackle three issues in order - safety and security, then flow and only then revenue for govt or biz.
They’ve also agreed to rollover the “continuity approach” that was cooked up May after heavy lobbying from car industry. Basically we unilaterally recognise EU standards on drugs, goods, data etc and do only spot checks at border. Will keep stuff coming in.. exports remain 😬
Also seeking to rollover of the Associated Arrangments on air travel, freight and financing that were agreed pre-29 March. Five month standstill that will stop planes grounded. Works for Irish as much as it does for us if they want to actually fly to Europe.
And after Yellowhammer and Kingfisher - we have a new ornithological addition to the Brexit aviary - Black Swans! A typically Cummings choice of word major issues coming down the no deal track.
“Black Swan Theory: An event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalised after the fact with the benefit of hindsight” - DC told all spads they had 48 hours to go away and find the Black Swans hidden in their departments.
He told them there was a total amnesty but if they came back in a month with a major problem they hadn’t flagged then he would sack them.... they’ve all had a busy week! And he warned if civil service tried to bury stuff or wouldn’t let them see things to call him.
And yes I realised i wrote November not October in the first tweet.
Black Swans so far have been inescapable conclusion food prices are going to rise in a No Deal. Also two oil refineries are at risk of going bust in UK if “tariff liberalisation” affects oil imports. Major threat to local economies and distribution.
But as ever it’s terrible news for Irish border. XO got very start warning that their plan “no checks with limited exceptions” on the border was “not sustainable” so it’s back to the table with Dublin at least.
they were also warned Irish criminals and dissident groups are going to have a field day in No Deal “operating with greater threat and impunity”.
Anyway. Despite “pacy” decision making progress with a dozen ministerial Actions ordered every day, seems some way to go down in the basement in Cabinet Briefing Room F. Daily at 1030 all this week... tick tock!
Important to stress some of that is worst case scenario, other bits somewhat obvious. But an insight into what they are planning for.
