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1/ For me, setting aside aversion to tariffs generally, the weakness of the Trump strategy in confronting China has always been the way he talked about it domestically.
Beijing framed it as a painful struggle demanding sacrifice of the Chinese people.
Trump framed it as a romp.
Beijing framed it as a painful struggle demanding sacrifice of the Chinese people.
Trump framed it as a romp.
2/ Confronted with a revolt among farmers, Trump was forced to turn on the subsidy taps.
If framed as part of a generation struggle, this could have been explained as relief to those sacrificing for a cause.
Instead it looked like bribing the deceived to shut up.
If framed as part of a generation struggle, this could have been explained as relief to those sacrificing for a cause.
Instead it looked like bribing the deceived to shut up.
3/ Now, facing the prospect of more expensive toys in the shopping aisles at Christmas, Trump is once again forced to back down or risk the entire country discovering that it is they and not the Chinese who pay the tariffs.
4/ Had Trump better articulated a 'cause' for the American people or laid out a case against the Chinese Government, he'd have options.
He could, rightly, say the tariffs are causing the Chinese to suffer too... but he can't since he told Americans they wouldn't suffer at all.
He could, rightly, say the tariffs are causing the Chinese to suffer too... but he can't since he told Americans they wouldn't suffer at all.
5/ As it stands, could most Americans even identify why the US is confronting China?
Is it IP? State subsidies? Currency manipulation or lack thereof? The South China Sea? Treatment of Uyghurs? Hong Kong? Taiwan?
What's the cause, and what does victory look like?
Is it IP? State subsidies? Currency manipulation or lack thereof? The South China Sea? Treatment of Uyghurs? Hong Kong? Taiwan?
What's the cause, and what does victory look like?
6/ It's hard to look at what's happening in China and not feel that something must be done, and with the greatest respect to my @ne0liberal fellow travellers, just joining the TPP clearly isn't going to cut it.
7/ The US is also the only player, with the tenuous exception of the EU, that is sufficiently in the Chinese weight-class to influence their policy choices.
Unfortunately, it increasingly feels like the US President is on the way to losing the fight where it matters. At home.
Unfortunately, it increasingly feels like the US President is on the way to losing the fight where it matters. At home.
