, 7 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Has been sometime since we discussed #uranium, specifically $CCJ $CCO.

Some might have seen a @cameconews seasonality chart based on the last 20-years of trading. Like the one included here.

Looking at this chart, one thing stands out: buy $CCJ just ahead of the Q4 rally $URA
At face value, following the seasonality fits well with the narrative of #section232 and $CCJ buying from the spot market.

The thing about averages, however, is that they reveal less than what they cover.

$URA #uranium
Take for instance, the correlation of $CCJ YTD price performance to the 20-year average YTD price performance. The two time series are negatively correlated... And not just a little

Take the best performing years of $CCJ over the last 20: 2003, 2009, 2004 and 2005. YTD performance of $CCO in 2019 is almost perfectly negatively correlated to the price performance YTD in each of those years.

Now take the worst performing year of $CCJ over the last 20 ex-2008: 2011. The YTD price performance of $CCO in 2009 is almost perfectly correlated with the YTD performance in 2011. Meaning that the stock is on track to generate an annual price return of -55%. #uranium
The thing is though, 2011 was the year of the #Fukushima disaster. So it probably doesn't make sense that 2019 would follow through in the same way.

#uranium $CCJ $CCO $URA
So the message is this: don't invest in #uranium because you think the seasonality is in your favour. Invest because you understand that the fundamentals are favourable $CCJ $CCO $URA #NobodySaidInvestingIsEasy
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