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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Reminder: the govt has for months refused to put forward it's own legislation because it's been scared backbenchers would put amendments on it.
For instance, why is there no Trade Remedies Authority? Because they're too scared to try to put the trade bill through.
Honestly, one of these days a minister in the Johnson govt is going to say something true and I'll faint on my arsehole.
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
I can't think of a single more irresponsible answer given by a British minister in my lifetime.
Any concerns Conservatives might try to raise about Jeremy Corbyn's radicalism are now dead. For all his faults, he has never once threatened the basic operating model of British democracy.
It is, quite simply, an unforgivable thing to say. He might not intend to go through with it - I doubt he does. But if our system makes any sense, Gove should be held in disgrace for having even considered it.
Read 3 tweets
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
So the govt has stepped back from the brink on ending free movement on October 31st. It's now clear how the sequencing ran.
First Priti Patel Mage the statement, without having taken any interest in what it entailed. Then they tried to find out what it entailed.
Now they have found out it would be a disaster and legally challengeable, so they have reversed it.
Read 6 tweets
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Really noticeable how weak the messages from Downing Street are. These arguments are pitiful.
Same with threats to stay in No.10 after a vote of no-confidence. That's not a threat. It's how it would operate until a new govt could be formed.
Same with threats to ignore rebel legislation. Once you get past the confidence with which it is said, and the often quite sycophantic reporting, there's very little substance there.
Read 3 tweets

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Fionna O'Leary #FBPE 🔶
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Brexit no-deal plan in disarray

“Dumping is when a product is sold more cheaply in another country than where it is made, in a bid to wipe out the competition and establish a monopoly.”

As for subsidies.. politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/07/…
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“Subsidies are when the state funnels cash into an industry to allow it to outperform its competitors. They both highlight a risk of global free trade: sometimes other countries don't fight fair.”
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“Reports emerging from the government's trade remedies body paint a depressingly familiar story: There isn't enough experience, they're badly out of their depth, and those who question policy are frozen out altogether. “
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This by @instituteforgov is good at explaining the legal mess that a no deal Brexit would create this side of the Channel. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/no-deal-b…
Much work for QCs: not so good for anyone else.
Some footnotes.
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Maddy Thimont Jack
@ThimontJack
While we've all been distracted by the big #Brexit votes in the Commons - some really interesting happenings in the Lords on the Trade Bill 1/
Last week, peers amended it to to say parliament (*both Houses*) must approve a negotiating mandate & approve a final trade deal before ratification

Also requires approval of mandate/deal by a designated select committees & consultation with the devolved administrations 2/
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George Peretz QC🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿BL🇮🇪
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This @instituteforgov by @jl_owen is of course excellent. But it’s too optimistic on customs.
The primary legislation for the new customs regime (the Taxation (Cross Border Trade) Act 2018) is in place. That Act repeals, as of exit day, all EU law providing for the imposition of tariffs (Schedule 7).
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An example of why “no deal” leads to legal chaos, which no responsible MP could contemplate.
On a “no deal” Brexit, all the trade remedies imposed by the EU on dumped or subsidised exports from eg China fall away. Covering a large range of products from solar panels to electric bicycles.
To prevent such imports flooding in after a no deal Brexit on 29/3/19 the U.K. would need to impose its own remedies.
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
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#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
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- Canada: 15.1%
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- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
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#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
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