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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
If there is an election before Oct 31 Johnson will be unable to commit to the "clean break" that Farage craves. That makes things difficult for Johnson @unherd

unherd.com/2019/09/how-it…
Presumably Johnson says "vote for me & get Brexit". Farage replies: "yes but what kind of Brexit?"
No 10 know No Deal too risky as GE strategy so play it down. Farage holds 10-15% of vote. Put that with Remainer backlash & not hard to see how we end up with hung parl again. Lol
People suggesting a Conservative-BP pact. Many probs. Aside from personality disputes (Cummings loathes Farage, Farage distrusts them all), there is also fact that most 'Spartans' are in safe seats/don't need pact. There are a few exceptions but pact only makes sense in marginals
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More from @GoodwinMJ see all

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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
There are really only 2 ways a Conservstive-Brexit Party pact *could* work

1 Farage repeats UKIP in 2010 via informal pact, stands down for "true No Dealers"/'Spartans'

2 Stands down in X no. of Lab-Con marginals in return for free run at X no. at northern pro-Brexit Lab seats
As I have already pointed out, the former really only makes sense for a few Conservative No Dealers like Villiers or Duddridge. Most No Dealers are in safe seats and really do not need a deal
unherd.com/2019/09/how-it…
A marginals-led pact wd make more sense whereby Brexit Party is given free run at *some* Labour Leave seats like Hartlepool, Rother Valley. Rotherham, Heywood & Middleton where 1) UKIP strong 2015/ legacy of Farage support & 2) Tories have no hope because...they are "the Tories"
Read 5 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
There are are only four certainties about the next general election in Britain, which would be the country's fifth nationwide contest in only four years
#pmqs #Brexit
First, it will strengthen our emerging Brexit identities. Since the referendum, studies suggest that our identities as 'Remainers' or 'Leavers' have become as important, if not more important, than our traditional party political identities. Another election will cement this.
Second, these identities & another toxic election will fuel the polarisation of British society. Research shows Britain is now suffering from 'affective polarisation' like the US -Brexit identities leading us to feel emotionally attached to our tribe but also hostile to the other
Read 5 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Whisper it quietly but even those who are the most opposed to #Brexit are starting to think about how to change Britain in the post-Brexit era

It only took three years

on.ft.com/2ODtFS5
Imagine if the energy that went into blocking Brexit went on fixing the concerns that led to it

Might that have made voters more open to changing minds? To a softer Brexit?

Or did the failure to do so -the dismissal, insults, throwing toys out of pram -harden their resolve?
We will never know, of course

But I suspect that for many Leavers the reaction to their request to Brexit is actually quite important to making sense of why so few of them have changed their minds since
Read 3 tweets

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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Johnson has a bit of an issue with an election. If he goes after Oct 31st, he can kill the Brexit party, but you'd be doing right in the business end of no-deal disruption.
If he goes before Oct 31st, Brexit party bit more of an issue, but he can be super-macho Leave to minimise their vote & still has chance to sell no-deal as the land of the magical unicorns.
So my guess is, on balance, he'd actually prefer an election before Oct 31st.
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Karol Cummins
@karolcummins
Putin has actively sought to destabilize the EU by supporting nationalist, populist parties like the League. In May, the Austrian gov’t fell after a video revealed the leader of Austria’s R wing discussing public contracts in exchange for RU campaign aid. nytimes.com/2019/07/10/wor…
“Funding to an Italian political party by a foreign state is illegal,” said Emanuele Fiano, member of Parliament who called on Mr. Salvini to appear before the Lower House to explain the financial negotiation heard on the tape.

nytimes.com/2019/07/10/wor…
“It’s also dangerous to know that an Italian party has a contract of collaboration with a foreign state,” he added in an interview.

Two former prime ministers from the Democratic Party also called on Wednesday for an official inquiry.
nytimes.com/2019/07/10/wor…
Read 21 tweets
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Chris #OpenSelection #GeneralStrike #JC4PM
@Socialist_Chris
Nigel Farage is a racist climate change denier who hides his tax dealings, supports authoritarian leaders across the globe and associates with known conspiracy theorists.

But do take my word for it. THREAD.
So, just to preface this. I won't be talking much about Brexit here. The reason being - it's been done. To death. And to the detriment of debate about how dangerous Farage actually is, and what he actually believes. We'll touch on it, but it ain't front row centre.
It's hard to know where to start with Farage, frankly. After doing the research that I have on him, it's stunning to think that he's the favourite for the European Elections. Sorry, stunning? I meant horrifying. But let's start with the young Farage, and work our way from there.
Read 66 tweets
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Dr. Jessica Light
@je_light
NEXT UP: #1 Plains Zebra (Equus quagga) & Yellow-Billed Oxpecker (Buphagus africanus) vs #8 seed Aardvark (Orycteropus afer) & Aardvark Cucumber (Cucumis humifructus) #2019MMM
In Round 1, Oxpecker (& Zebra) picked off the Batfly (& Gammaproteobacteria). Aardvark & Cucurbit advanced against #Tripletrouble monkeys in an epic #BeastieBoys Battle #2019MMM
Why do Zebras have stripes? Scientists had thought these stripes were anti-predator devices, making it difficult for predators to cue in on 1 individual among the herd (called disruptive coloration) #2019MMM
Read 23 tweets
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Harpreet
@CestMoiz
1
Ok folks, carrying on from this thread of yesterday morning, in light of the events of this day. My thoughts are still a bit unstructured, so pl bear with me.
2
First and foremost, the point raised in this tweet from nearly four years ago has now been answered. Whether it develops into a war, or a 'near war' is to be seen now
3
I guess that the Brown Pants have taken a call to retaliate, assuming that the aftermath of an overt retaliation will be easier to manage than the yahoos within their own country
Read 37 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇮🇷 #Canada arrests #Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver – The Globe and Mail
theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…
A gauge of #technology shares on the MSCI #Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 3 percent before paring some losses - Bloomberg
🇺🇸 #SPX ⬇ as much as 1.9% from Tuesday’s close, before paring some losses. Selling pressure early in the session was so intense that it forced CME Group to intermittently pause trading, according to a spokesperson for the exchange - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/2BTw5DN
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