Thread by @GoodwinMJ

There are are only four certainties about the next general election in Britain, which would be the country's fifth nationwide contest in only four years
#pmqs #Brexit

First, it will strengthen our emerging Brexit identities. Since the referendum, studies suggest that our identities as 'Remainers' or 'Leavers' have become as important, if not more important, than our traditional party political identities. Another election will cement this.

Second, these identities & another toxic election will fuel the polarisation of British society. Research shows Britain is now suffering from 'affective polarisation' like the US -Brexit identities leading us to feel emotionally attached to our tribe but also hostile to the other

Third, all of this + election will push us further toward full 'realignment' of Britain's party system. Major realignments are rare -examples 1846, 1906, 1980s. A once stable 2 party system has already imploded into 4 party race. Cons sinking anchor in Leave, opposition in Remain

Fourth, an election will be VERY unpredictable. Britain grappling with rates of volatility (switching between parties) & disloyalty to 2 main parties that are largely unprecedented in postwar era. Con landslide or Lab-led coalition equally plausible to me. Major gamble for all.